$BLUR Yesterday’s short-squeeze wick has been completely erased. The price is back at 0.0105, almost where it was before the rally, but futures open interest measured in coins is nearly 100 million higher than before the rally. The price made a round trip, while the positions on the table are more crowded than ever.
Before the rally, open interest had fallen to 389 million coins. It climbed to 575 million at the peak, and now 487 million remain—about 25% more. Since noon today, open interest has risen again even as the price has ground lower from 471 million. The funding rate hasn’t turned positive once since that wick. Last night at 20:00, the single-period rate hit -1.43%, the six-period cumulative rate was about -2.6%, and the next period is still forecast to be around -0.42%. Perpetual futures are trading about 1% below the spot index; the bears are still the ones weighing on the price.
Let’s look back at the numbers. When the wick first appeared, I wrote that this move was a short squeeze combined with momentum chasing, and that if the price fell back to 0.0115 while open interest stayed above 440 million, those who bought at the top would have to pay. I got half of that right: all the longs who chased above 0.012 are now underwater. What I didn’t expect was that the shorts hadn’t left at all—they rebuilt their positions at lower levels.
The daily RSI is 23.6, the KDJ J value is down to just 1.1, and the price is hugging the lower daily Bollinger Band at 0.0100. Since October 11’s 0.0191, it has fallen 45%. The mechanics are simple: shorts pay 0.1% to 0.4% every four hours. Holding on at a severely oversold level means the fees keep eating into their capital as long as the price stops falling. Those who can’t hold out have to buy back to close their positions—that’s how yesterday’s wick happened.
Support levels are today’s low of 0.01034 and the lower band at 0.0100, followed by yesterday’s low of 0.0096. Overhead, 0.0110–0.0112 is last night’s trading range, and 0.0132 is the wick’s peak.
In the short term, I’m leaning more toward another squeeze higher than a direct break below 0.0096, but that would only be short covering; the daily EMA12 is at 0.0149, still 40% above the current price, and the downtrend structure hasn’t changed. I don’t hold BLUR, and I’m not shorting it either. After tonight’s 20:00 funding payment, I’ll be watching to see whether open interest drops first or the price gets back above 0.0110 first. These are my personal views.
#BLUR #ShortSqueeze
Before the rally, open interest had fallen to 389 million coins. It climbed to 575 million at the peak, and now 487 million remain—about 25% more. Since noon today, open interest has risen again even as the price has ground lower from 471 million. The funding rate hasn’t turned positive once since that wick. Last night at 20:00, the single-period rate hit -1.43%, the six-period cumulative rate was about -2.6%, and the next period is still forecast to be around -0.42%. Perpetual futures are trading about 1% below the spot index; the bears are still the ones weighing on the price.
Let’s look back at the numbers. When the wick first appeared, I wrote that this move was a short squeeze combined with momentum chasing, and that if the price fell back to 0.0115 while open interest stayed above 440 million, those who bought at the top would have to pay. I got half of that right: all the longs who chased above 0.012 are now underwater. What I didn’t expect was that the shorts hadn’t left at all—they rebuilt their positions at lower levels.
The daily RSI is 23.6, the KDJ J value is down to just 1.1, and the price is hugging the lower daily Bollinger Band at 0.0100. Since October 11’s 0.0191, it has fallen 45%. The mechanics are simple: shorts pay 0.1% to 0.4% every four hours. Holding on at a severely oversold level means the fees keep eating into their capital as long as the price stops falling. Those who can’t hold out have to buy back to close their positions—that’s how yesterday’s wick happened.
Support levels are today’s low of 0.01034 and the lower band at 0.0100, followed by yesterday’s low of 0.0096. Overhead, 0.0110–0.0112 is last night’s trading range, and 0.0132 is the wick’s peak.
In the short term, I’m leaning more toward another squeeze higher than a direct break below 0.0096, but that would only be short covering; the daily EMA12 is at 0.0149, still 40% above the current price, and the downtrend structure hasn’t changed. I don’t hold BLUR, and I’m not shorting it either. After tonight’s 20:00 funding payment, I’ll be watching to see whether open interest drops first or the price gets back above 0.0110 first. These are my personal views.
#BLUR #ShortSqueeze