$ETH A low-volume rebound with no follow-through; negative funding rates show the bulls haven’t returned
Price at $2,455 (24h +3.53%)
Volume has shrunk to 40%, yet the price has still bounced more than 3%. This kind of rebound has no one backing it up.
Funding rates just turned negative today. Shorts are paying a small amount, but the rate is barely negative—nowhere near enough to force a short squeeze.
In other words, the bulls haven’t made any big bets. The price is still rising mainly because shorts are covering, with no one following through.
There are two things in yesterday’s news that need to be viewed together. First, a large number of long positions were liquidated, just as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data came out, and ETH briefly fell below its previous support.
Second, the entire crypto market shed $100 billion that same day. BTC, ETH, and XRP all plunged, while PUMP, CC, ENA, LIT, and ZEC took the hardest hits.
A bounce after a sell-off like that looks more like a rebound after selling pressure has been exhausted than a move driven by buyers actively stepping in.
Looking at key levels, if the price holds around 2314, that would suggest there are still buyers below, and we can view this as range-bound trading. If it breaks above 2520 on rising volume, then this move would have real substance. Otherwise, any rebound is likely to be pushed back down by the moving averages overhead.
I think this move is more likely to be a relief bounce. I’ll reconsider that view if the price reclaims 2520 with strong volume.
For now, I expect it to retest 2314 first. I’m not in a hurry to look for 2520.
#ETH #加密货币 #盘面观察
Price at $2,455 (24h +3.53%)
Volume has shrunk to 40%, yet the price has still bounced more than 3%. This kind of rebound has no one backing it up.
Funding rates just turned negative today. Shorts are paying a small amount, but the rate is barely negative—nowhere near enough to force a short squeeze.
In other words, the bulls haven’t made any big bets. The price is still rising mainly because shorts are covering, with no one following through.
There are two things in yesterday’s news that need to be viewed together. First, a large number of long positions were liquidated, just as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data came out, and ETH briefly fell below its previous support.
Second, the entire crypto market shed $100 billion that same day. BTC, ETH, and XRP all plunged, while PUMP, CC, ENA, LIT, and ZEC took the hardest hits.
A bounce after a sell-off like that looks more like a rebound after selling pressure has been exhausted than a move driven by buyers actively stepping in.
Looking at key levels, if the price holds around 2314, that would suggest there are still buyers below, and we can view this as range-bound trading. If it breaks above 2520 on rising volume, then this move would have real substance. Otherwise, any rebound is likely to be pushed back down by the moving averages overhead.
I think this move is more likely to be a relief bounce. I’ll reconsider that view if the price reclaims 2520 with strong volume.
For now, I expect it to retest 2314 first. I’m not in a hurry to look for 2520.
#ETH #加密货币 #盘面观察