#ai和半导体股本周市值损失超1万亿美元
A trillion dollars evaporated from chip stocks in four days, and Bitcoin hasn't moved a cent.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 8% over the past five days, down 12% from its high for the month. Micron is down 10%, ARM is down 26% from its high, and AMD and TSMC are both down 13%. The Nasdaq as a whole fell less than 2% over those five days.
Money hasn't left the market as a whole—it's being pulled specifically from chips.
The other day I was talking about bets on rate hikes. But the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen from 5.28 to 5.09, so rates have actually eased. If rates are easing and chip stocks are still falling, then this isn't about liquidity. It's that people are starting to ask who will pay for this round of AI. Orders, data centers, long-term contracts—it all runs on borrowed money. When credit starts coughing, the first to get sold are the stocks whose earnings lie furthest in the future.
Just to put it in perspective: the trillion dollars that evaporated over these four days would be enough to buy more than a third of the entire crypto market.
Also, traffic on the feed has been bizarre these past couple of days. Hardly anyone looks at posts about US stocks, but write about shitcoins and people come swarming in.
I'm still bullish on Bitcoin. It had every reason to fall this week, but it's been hovering around $82,000 for nearly a week without breaking down.
The thing that spent a year falling alongside US stocks isn't following them this time. That's more interesting than a 2,000-point rally. If it really falls back below $80,000, I'll change my tune. For now, I'm not changing it.
#AI和半导体股本周市值损失超1万亿美元 $BTC
A trillion dollars evaporated from chip stocks in four days, and Bitcoin hasn't moved a cent.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 8% over the past five days, down 12% from its high for the month. Micron is down 10%, ARM is down 26% from its high, and AMD and TSMC are both down 13%. The Nasdaq as a whole fell less than 2% over those five days.
Money hasn't left the market as a whole—it's being pulled specifically from chips.
The other day I was talking about bets on rate hikes. But the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen from 5.28 to 5.09, so rates have actually eased. If rates are easing and chip stocks are still falling, then this isn't about liquidity. It's that people are starting to ask who will pay for this round of AI. Orders, data centers, long-term contracts—it all runs on borrowed money. When credit starts coughing, the first to get sold are the stocks whose earnings lie furthest in the future.
Just to put it in perspective: the trillion dollars that evaporated over these four days would be enough to buy more than a third of the entire crypto market.
Also, traffic on the feed has been bizarre these past couple of days. Hardly anyone looks at posts about US stocks, but write about shitcoins and people come swarming in.
I'm still bullish on Bitcoin. It had every reason to fall this week, but it's been hovering around $82,000 for nearly a week without breaking down.
The thing that spent a year falling alongside US stocks isn't following them this time. That's more interesting than a 2,000-point rally. If it really falls back below $80,000, I'll change my tune. For now, I'm not changing it.
#AI和半导体股本周市值损失超1万亿美元 $BTC