$BTC Last night's dip to test $80,000 probably made everyone's heart skip a beat. You could all see that it was driven by a combination of hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation, weakness in Asian markets, and declining risk appetite. But A Jian thinks the most important takeaway from this move is that the market rapidly reshuffled its positions: longs were forced to sell as prices fell, while shorts may have started covering as prices bounced. The price may look like it simply rebounded from around $80,000, but many of the people in the market have changed.
So, at current prices, this doesn't look like an inevitable rally after liquidations so much as a technical recovery following deleveraging. Spot demand hasn't fully returned. For a genuine trend reversal, we should see spot trading pick up, prices hold firmly above $82,600 again, and ETF flows stop deteriorating.
Also, although the liquidation amount was large this time, that doesn't mean selling pressure is completely over. Some longs were simply liquidated, while the remaining spot holders may still be waiting for a better price to exit. A Jian doesn't recommend using “it's already fallen” as a reason to add to your position.#美国9月PPI年率升至6.3%
So, at current prices, this doesn't look like an inevitable rally after liquidations so much as a technical recovery following deleveraging. Spot demand hasn't fully returned. For a genuine trend reversal, we should see spot trading pick up, prices hold firmly above $82,600 again, and ETF flows stop deteriorating.
Also, although the liquidation amount was large this time, that doesn't mean selling pressure is completely over. Some longs were simply liquidated, while the remaining spot holders may still be waiting for a better price to exit. A Jian doesn't recommend using “it's already fallen” as a reason to add to your position.#美国9月PPI年率升至6.3%