PPI exploded! 6.3% versus 5.3% expected. Core PPI came in at 5.0%, versus 4.4% expected. Across-the-board blowouts.
Energy surged 10.8% month over month, accounting for over 80% of the increase in goods prices. This isn’t inflation—it’s a supply-side powder keg. Retail sales also came in at 0.8% the same day, far above expectations. High inflation + strong consumer spending: the specter of stagflation has officially arrived.
But the market reaction was sharply divided: Treasury yields plunged 13 basis points across the board, with the 10-year falling to 5.089%. Stocks, however, rebounded, with the Dow up 1.08%. Why? Safe-haven money flowed into bonds, while the market bet that the Fed wouldn’t dare raise rates aggressively. But the probability of a December rate hike is already nearing 90%—this is an extremely dangerous bet.
The technicals are already speaking:
The Nasdaq 100 is currently at 29,935, with an RSI (14) of just 40.66 and MACD at -233.30. The overall technical-indicator summary signals a strong sell. The MA200 sits overhead at 30,156, acting as resistance, and the bearish moving-average alignment is clear.
Trading strategy:
🔴 Short Nasdaq: Enter in the 29,900–30,000 range; stop-loss at 30,500; first take-profit at 29,300 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement level); second take-profit at 28,800. After the first target is hit, move the stop-loss to breakeven.
🔴 Short S&P 500: Resistance zone at 7,780–7,800. A break below 7,700 confirms further downside. Stop-loss at 7,850; target at 7,620.
🟢 Long gold: Currently around 4,170, with UBS’s key support zone at 3,990–4,030. Enter with a small position on a pullback to 4,050–4,100; stop-loss at 3,980; target at 4,280.
Biggest risks: Escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions and an unexpectedly dovish Fed. PPI leads CPI by one to two months, so October and November CPI readings will only look worse. The stagflation trade is on—there’s still time to get in.
#美国9月ppi年率升至6.3%
Energy surged 10.8% month over month, accounting for over 80% of the increase in goods prices. This isn’t inflation—it’s a supply-side powder keg. Retail sales also came in at 0.8% the same day, far above expectations. High inflation + strong consumer spending: the specter of stagflation has officially arrived.
But the market reaction was sharply divided: Treasury yields plunged 13 basis points across the board, with the 10-year falling to 5.089%. Stocks, however, rebounded, with the Dow up 1.08%. Why? Safe-haven money flowed into bonds, while the market bet that the Fed wouldn’t dare raise rates aggressively. But the probability of a December rate hike is already nearing 90%—this is an extremely dangerous bet.
The technicals are already speaking:
The Nasdaq 100 is currently at 29,935, with an RSI (14) of just 40.66 and MACD at -233.30. The overall technical-indicator summary signals a strong sell. The MA200 sits overhead at 30,156, acting as resistance, and the bearish moving-average alignment is clear.
Trading strategy:
🔴 Short Nasdaq: Enter in the 29,900–30,000 range; stop-loss at 30,500; first take-profit at 29,300 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement level); second take-profit at 28,800. After the first target is hit, move the stop-loss to breakeven.
🔴 Short S&P 500: Resistance zone at 7,780–7,800. A break below 7,700 confirms further downside. Stop-loss at 7,850; target at 7,620.
🟢 Long gold: Currently around 4,170, with UBS’s key support zone at 3,990–4,030. Enter with a small position on a pullback to 4,050–4,100; stop-loss at 3,980; target at 4,280.
Biggest risks: Escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions and an unexpectedly dovish Fed. PPI leads CPI by one to two months, so October and November CPI readings will only look worse. The stagflation trade is on—there’s still time to get in.
#美国9月ppi年率升至6.3%