The $80,000 hurdle has left buyers suddenly out of breath—and on-chain indicators are flashing first
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The key metric tracked by on-chain analytics platform Alphractal is the gap between buying and selling pressure, and it’s trending downward. Bitcoin briefly dipped to around $80,000 intraday before managing to claw its way back to around $82,000. This narrow trading range is a classic sign of a standoff between bulls and bears. 🦖
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson is taking a measured view: a drop in the metric doesn’t yet confirm that selling pressure has taken over. But if it keeps falling for several days—or even turns negative—that would mean sellers have seized the initiative, significantly increasing downside risk. ⚠️
The chain reaction is even more noteworthy. The platform warns that when the median returns of the top 100 altcoins by market cap exceed Bitcoin’s, their volatility tends to rise sharply afterward. That kind of relative strength is rarely sustainable. Looking at past market cycles, the market tends to undergo a structural shift roughly every 60 days. During these turning points, investors typically pull out of riskier assets and seek shelter in Bitcoin and stablecoins. 📉
In other words, if Bitcoin itself doesn’t have enough buying pressure, altcoin rallies have no solid foundation. If buying pressure for Bitcoin continues to dry up, altcoins could fall much further than major coins. Stablecoins and Bitcoin, by contrast, may become short-term safe havens.
Meanwhile, an old market belief is being challenged. The oft-repeated claim that October is always a winning month is being put to the test. Bernardo Brites, co-founder and CEO of TraceFinance, told CryptoPotato that October has indeed risen 10 times over the past 13 years—but that’s a small sample. Those gains were driven by retail sentiment and leverage, a very different market structure from today’s institution-led one.
He also pointed out that last year broke the streak of six consecutive October gains. Seasonality itself is becoming less reliable. What really determines Bitcoin’s price now is ETF flows, interest rates, and the dollar’s trajectory—not the month on the calendar.
So there’s just one key event this month: the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28. The rate decision and the dollar’s direction will directly influence where ETF flows go, and in turn affect Bitcoin’s price. My take is that this looks more like a buildup ahead of a directional move than the end of the trend. Still, “buyers running out of steam” is a phrase worth keeping on your watchlist. 👀
Join the discussion: do you think this is the start of a reversal, or just another false breakdown?
Every day, I bring you the latest crypto market developments—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind the headlines. 👀🚀
👉 进群看盘面
The key metric tracked by on-chain analytics platform Alphractal is the gap between buying and selling pressure, and it’s trending downward. Bitcoin briefly dipped to around $80,000 intraday before managing to claw its way back to around $82,000. This narrow trading range is a classic sign of a standoff between bulls and bears. 🦖
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson is taking a measured view: a drop in the metric doesn’t yet confirm that selling pressure has taken over. But if it keeps falling for several days—or even turns negative—that would mean sellers have seized the initiative, significantly increasing downside risk. ⚠️
The chain reaction is even more noteworthy. The platform warns that when the median returns of the top 100 altcoins by market cap exceed Bitcoin’s, their volatility tends to rise sharply afterward. That kind of relative strength is rarely sustainable. Looking at past market cycles, the market tends to undergo a structural shift roughly every 60 days. During these turning points, investors typically pull out of riskier assets and seek shelter in Bitcoin and stablecoins. 📉
In other words, if Bitcoin itself doesn’t have enough buying pressure, altcoin rallies have no solid foundation. If buying pressure for Bitcoin continues to dry up, altcoins could fall much further than major coins. Stablecoins and Bitcoin, by contrast, may become short-term safe havens.
Meanwhile, an old market belief is being challenged. The oft-repeated claim that October is always a winning month is being put to the test. Bernardo Brites, co-founder and CEO of TraceFinance, told CryptoPotato that October has indeed risen 10 times over the past 13 years—but that’s a small sample. Those gains were driven by retail sentiment and leverage, a very different market structure from today’s institution-led one.
He also pointed out that last year broke the streak of six consecutive October gains. Seasonality itself is becoming less reliable. What really determines Bitcoin’s price now is ETF flows, interest rates, and the dollar’s trajectory—not the month on the calendar.
So there’s just one key event this month: the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28. The rate decision and the dollar’s direction will directly influence where ETF flows go, and in turn affect Bitcoin’s price. My take is that this looks more like a buildup ahead of a directional move than the end of the trend. Still, “buyers running out of steam” is a phrase worth keeping on your watchlist. 👀
Join the discussion: do you think this is the start of a reversal, or just another false breakdown?
Every day, I bring you the latest crypto market developments—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind the headlines. 👀🚀