This week has been packed with high-impact information, so let’s first review what happened.
On October 14, September CPI came in: 3.7% annualized (3.6% expected), with core CPI up 0.3% month over month (0.2% expected). It came in hotter than expected, and BTC fell from 83,800 to 82,500.
On October 15, September PPI came in: up 1.3% month over month (0.9% expected) and 6.3% year over year (5.4% expected)—the largest monthly increase since March 2022. BTC fell further, to around 81,500. The odds of an October rate hike rose from 17% to 34%.
Today, October 16, Warsh will have a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Georgieva at the IMF’s annual meeting in Bangkok—12:30 p.m. Beijing time today (early morning ET).
This is the Fed’s last public appearance before the FOMC blackout period begins. After that, no officials will make public comments before the October 27 FOMC meeting.
The market has just one key question about this appearance: Will he hint at a rate hike on October 27?
Citi’s view: “Warsh will stick to his usual stance of not offering forward guidance, emphasizing only that inflation is above target and that the Fed will act accordingly—which, after both CPI and PPI came in hotter than expected, will sound hawkish.”
Evercore’s Krishna Guha, on the other hand, believes: “Warsh is unlikely to hint at an October rate hike, as he’ll take into account the turmoil in global tech stocks and the backdrop of tightening financing conditions for AI-related companies.”
The two firms have exactly opposite views on the outcome, but agree that “Warsh won’t give a clear signal.”
That means the most likely outcome tonight is that Warsh will say a lot about inflation without clearly signaling whether rates will be raised in October. The market will decide how to price things based on how hawkish or dovish his wording sounds.
BTC is currently around 81,500, just about $1,200 above the 80,300 low tested last week. If Warsh’s wording is more hawkish than expected tonight, the odds of an October rate hike could rise from 34% to over 50%, and BTC could face another test of the 80,000 level. If his wording is dovish, that would effectively signal a pause in October, giving BTC a chance to rebound to 83,000–84,000.
Whether BTC can hold 80,000—that’s the most important number for BTC over the next 11 days, leading up to the October 27 FOMC meeting.
What did Warsh say tonight, and how did you interpret it right away? Share your thoughts.
$BTC
On October 14, September CPI came in: 3.7% annualized (3.6% expected), with core CPI up 0.3% month over month (0.2% expected). It came in hotter than expected, and BTC fell from 83,800 to 82,500.
On October 15, September PPI came in: up 1.3% month over month (0.9% expected) and 6.3% year over year (5.4% expected)—the largest monthly increase since March 2022. BTC fell further, to around 81,500. The odds of an October rate hike rose from 17% to 34%.
Today, October 16, Warsh will have a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Georgieva at the IMF’s annual meeting in Bangkok—12:30 p.m. Beijing time today (early morning ET).
This is the Fed’s last public appearance before the FOMC blackout period begins. After that, no officials will make public comments before the October 27 FOMC meeting.
The market has just one key question about this appearance: Will he hint at a rate hike on October 27?
Citi’s view: “Warsh will stick to his usual stance of not offering forward guidance, emphasizing only that inflation is above target and that the Fed will act accordingly—which, after both CPI and PPI came in hotter than expected, will sound hawkish.”
Evercore’s Krishna Guha, on the other hand, believes: “Warsh is unlikely to hint at an October rate hike, as he’ll take into account the turmoil in global tech stocks and the backdrop of tightening financing conditions for AI-related companies.”
The two firms have exactly opposite views on the outcome, but agree that “Warsh won’t give a clear signal.”
That means the most likely outcome tonight is that Warsh will say a lot about inflation without clearly signaling whether rates will be raised in October. The market will decide how to price things based on how hawkish or dovish his wording sounds.
BTC is currently around 81,500, just about $1,200 above the 80,300 low tested last week. If Warsh’s wording is more hawkish than expected tonight, the odds of an October rate hike could rise from 34% to over 50%, and BTC could face another test of the 80,000 level. If his wording is dovish, that would effectively signal a pause in October, giving BTC a chance to rebound to 83,000–84,000.
Whether BTC can hold 80,000—that’s the most important number for BTC over the next 11 days, leading up to the October 27 FOMC meeting.
What did Warsh say tonight, and how did you interpret it right away? Share your thoughts.
$BTC
