According to the latest data released by U.S. mortgage giant Freddie Mac, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage nationwide is holding at a high of 7.4%. It has failed to decline for eight consecutive weeks and is nearing its highest level since last November. Over this period, borrowing costs have risen by a cumulative 75 basis points, directly triggering a 4% month-over-month plunge in pending home sales in September—the steepest drop in more than three years.
From a technical and macroeconomic perspective, real estate data are a lagging economic indicator, and the sharp contraction in transaction volumes confirms that the effects of the tightening cycle are being transmitted through the economy. The rapid cooling of housing demand may help bring forward a turning point in inflation expectations, prompting a shift toward expectations of looser macroeconomic policy and offering a potential reversal for risk assets under valuation pressure.
Although high interest rates are weighing on the performance of traditional credit assets in the short term, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index are showing signs of losing upward momentum at multiple resistance levels. Traditional safe-haven assets and risk assets are once again moving toward balance, as capital begins shifting toward inflation-resistant assets with high volatility and nontraditional characteristics.
For the crypto market, cooling in the housing market and other parts of the real economy is accelerating the reallocation of funds within liquidity pools. $BTC has shown exceptional resilience in the face of declines and signs of accumulation in a key support range. As high borrowing costs undermine the appeal of traditional real-world investments, highly liquid on-chain assets may see a structural return of buying interest.
#InterestRates #MortgageRates #MacroEconomy
From a technical and macroeconomic perspective, real estate data are a lagging economic indicator, and the sharp contraction in transaction volumes confirms that the effects of the tightening cycle are being transmitted through the economy. The rapid cooling of housing demand may help bring forward a turning point in inflation expectations, prompting a shift toward expectations of looser macroeconomic policy and offering a potential reversal for risk assets under valuation pressure.
Although high interest rates are weighing on the performance of traditional credit assets in the short term, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index are showing signs of losing upward momentum at multiple resistance levels. Traditional safe-haven assets and risk assets are once again moving toward balance, as capital begins shifting toward inflation-resistant assets with high volatility and nontraditional characteristics.
For the crypto market, cooling in the housing market and other parts of the real economy is accelerating the reallocation of funds within liquidity pools. $BTC has shown exceptional resilience in the face of declines and signs of accumulation in a key support range. As high borrowing costs undermine the appeal of traditional real-world investments, highly liquid on-chain assets may see a structural return of buying interest.
#InterestRates #MortgageRates #MacroEconomy