#On-Chain Metrics Analysis
BTC: Bitcoin’s on-chain unrealized profit ratio, excluding coins dormant for more than ten years
The effective unrealized profit ratio is calculated by excluding coins that have not moved for more than ten years from both the profitable supply and the total supply. It is used to track profit-taking among active coins and the resetting of their cost basis.
60%–75% · Recovery Phase
The current 7-day moving average of the effective unrealized profit ratio is approximately 62.82% (2026-10-14), down approximately 7.43% over seven days.
Approximately 3.60M BTC (about 17.90% of the total supply) in coins dormant for more than ten years have been excluded. The current level remains about 7.82% above the modern-cycle deep-turnover threshold of approximately 55%.
The low over the past 365 days, at approximately 36.43%, has already fallen below the threshold; the ratio is now in a recovery-confirmation phase.
Historically, when the effective unrealized profit ratio falls back to around 55%–60%, it often signals a deep shakeout of profit-taking supply ahead of the end of a recovery phase. A low unrealized profit ratio alone cannot confirm a major bull run; it should be considered alongside spot demand and the cost basis of long-term holders.
$BTC
BTC: Bitcoin’s on-chain unrealized profit ratio, excluding coins dormant for more than ten years
The effective unrealized profit ratio is calculated by excluding coins that have not moved for more than ten years from both the profitable supply and the total supply. It is used to track profit-taking among active coins and the resetting of their cost basis.
60%–75% · Recovery Phase
The current 7-day moving average of the effective unrealized profit ratio is approximately 62.82% (2026-10-14), down approximately 7.43% over seven days.
Approximately 3.60M BTC (about 17.90% of the total supply) in coins dormant for more than ten years have been excluded. The current level remains about 7.82% above the modern-cycle deep-turnover threshold of approximately 55%.
The low over the past 365 days, at approximately 36.43%, has already fallen below the threshold; the ratio is now in a recovery-confirmation phase.
Historically, when the effective unrealized profit ratio falls back to around 55%–60%, it often signals a deep shakeout of profit-taking supply ahead of the end of a recovery phase. A low unrealized profit ratio alone cannot confirm a major bull run; it should be considered alongside spot demand and the cost basis of long-term holders.
$BTC