Inflation goes through the roof: Bitcoin plunges below $80,000, then climbs back to $82,000 an hour later 🦖
The US September Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to 6.3% year over year, a full 100 basis points above market expectations of 5.3%—the biggest monthly increase since March 2022. The day before, CPI had already come in hotter than expected, leaving markets on edge.
🚨 行情变了群里说
Bitcoin briefly fell to $80,983, its lowest level since September 18, and was down as much as 3% on the day. Ethereum, XRP, and Solana fell even harder. But after a wave of short positions was liquidated, the price climbed back above $82,000 💥
The strangest move came from elsewhere: despite the scorching inflation data, Treasury yields actually fell. The 30-year yield dropped 8 basis points to 5.08%, well below its recent high of 5.36%, while the 10-year yield also fell by around 3%.
Robin Brooks, former head of FX strategy at Goldman Sachs, calculated that the 30-day correlation between upside data surprises and the 10-year yield has fallen from nearly 0.6 earlier this year to virtually zero by the end of August. His explanation: markets are now focused on the path of the fiscal deficit, not the data itself.
Rate-hike expectations have also cooled. CME data shows the odds of a hike this month to 4%–4.25% are down to just 29%, after briefly approaching 50% following the CPI release ⚠️
Technically, the 21-week and 50-week exponential moving averages are at $76,144 and $78,459, respectively. Analyst Rekt Capital says that in early bull markets, it’s common for prices to retest these levels before moving higher. Aksel Kibar, meanwhile, says last week’s close at $83,700 lacked breakout strength, with the top of the range at $82,800.
My take: The hotter the data, the lower the yields—meaning markets are now trading stagflation and fiscal deficits, not rate hikes. Bitcoin’s rebound came from shorts getting squeezed, not stronger buying. To confirm a bullish turn, we need to see it reclaim the $82,800 range high.
Do you think it has recovered from the sharp drop, or is this just a brief bounce before it heads back to $78,000? Let’s talk in the comments.
I bring you the latest crypto market trends every day—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
The US September Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to 6.3% year over year, a full 100 basis points above market expectations of 5.3%—the biggest monthly increase since March 2022. The day before, CPI had already come in hotter than expected, leaving markets on edge.
🚨 行情变了群里说
Bitcoin briefly fell to $80,983, its lowest level since September 18, and was down as much as 3% on the day. Ethereum, XRP, and Solana fell even harder. But after a wave of short positions was liquidated, the price climbed back above $82,000 💥
The strangest move came from elsewhere: despite the scorching inflation data, Treasury yields actually fell. The 30-year yield dropped 8 basis points to 5.08%, well below its recent high of 5.36%, while the 10-year yield also fell by around 3%.
Robin Brooks, former head of FX strategy at Goldman Sachs, calculated that the 30-day correlation between upside data surprises and the 10-year yield has fallen from nearly 0.6 earlier this year to virtually zero by the end of August. His explanation: markets are now focused on the path of the fiscal deficit, not the data itself.
Rate-hike expectations have also cooled. CME data shows the odds of a hike this month to 4%–4.25% are down to just 29%, after briefly approaching 50% following the CPI release ⚠️
Technically, the 21-week and 50-week exponential moving averages are at $76,144 and $78,459, respectively. Analyst Rekt Capital says that in early bull markets, it’s common for prices to retest these levels before moving higher. Aksel Kibar, meanwhile, says last week’s close at $83,700 lacked breakout strength, with the top of the range at $82,800.
My take: The hotter the data, the lower the yields—meaning markets are now trading stagflation and fiscal deficits, not rate hikes. Bitcoin’s rebound came from shorts getting squeezed, not stronger buying. To confirm a bullish turn, we need to see it reclaim the $82,800 range high.
Do you think it has recovered from the sharp drop, or is this just a brief bounce before it heads back to $78,000? Let’s talk in the comments.
I bring you the latest crypto market trends every day—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀