📊 Does history always repeat itself in astonishing ways? The U.S. stock market’s “midterm election curse”
Looking back at the past few cycles:
🔹 2014: BTC bottomed 71 days after the midterm elections
🔹 2018: BTC bottomed 39 days after the midterm elections
🔹 2022: BTC bottomed 13 days after the midterm elections
From 71 days to 39 days to 13 days—the data doesn’t lie:
1️⃣ Faster institutionalization: Capital no longer waits for prolonged certainty; getting in early has become the norm.
2️⃣ Stronger macro ties: The policy implementation period after midterm elections is when liquidity gets reshuffled. One interesting trend: bottoms seem to be forming earlier and earlier.
Will 2026 bring a new twist?
But I’m more focused on three questions:
1️⃣ Is macro liquidity starting to improve?
2️⃣ During the decline, is OI rising or falling?
3️⃣ When the market is broadly bearish, is the price starting to refuse to make new lows?
If prices fall and OI declines, that may signal deleveraging. If prices then stabilize and aggressive buying picks up, that’s when a potential reversal is worth watching more closely.
Historical cycles can offer clues, but capital flows are what confirm the signal.
In 2026, is your cyclical bottom getting closer?
Remember: Don’t bet on the entire market ahead of time based on a single pattern.
Looking back at the past few cycles:
🔹 2014: BTC bottomed 71 days after the midterm elections
🔹 2018: BTC bottomed 39 days after the midterm elections
🔹 2022: BTC bottomed 13 days after the midterm elections
From 71 days to 39 days to 13 days—the data doesn’t lie:
1️⃣ Faster institutionalization: Capital no longer waits for prolonged certainty; getting in early has become the norm.
2️⃣ Stronger macro ties: The policy implementation period after midterm elections is when liquidity gets reshuffled. One interesting trend: bottoms seem to be forming earlier and earlier.
Will 2026 bring a new twist?
But I’m more focused on three questions:
1️⃣ Is macro liquidity starting to improve?
2️⃣ During the decline, is OI rising or falling?
3️⃣ When the market is broadly bearish, is the price starting to refuse to make new lows?
If prices fall and OI declines, that may signal deleveraging. If prices then stabilize and aggressive buying picks up, that’s when a potential reversal is worth watching more closely.
Historical cycles can offer clues, but capital flows are what confirm the signal.
In 2026, is your cyclical bottom getting closer?
Remember: Don’t bet on the entire market ahead of time based on a single pattern.