It's me again, your insider briefing. When there's no clear direction, I keep posting updates as usual.

BTC is trading at around $80,431, down 2.47% over the past 24 hours and below the psychologically important $80,000 level. Over the past day, the 524 coins across the crypto market fell by an average of 4.6%, with only 11.3% posting gains—a broad-based decline. The specific cause of the drop has yet to be confirmed, and the data shows no single event that explains it.

One detail is worth noting: the long/short ratio is 1.77, meaning there are significantly more accounts holding long positions than short positions. But the taker buy/sell ratio is only 0.861, below 1, indicating that taker sell volume is higher in actual trades. In simple terms, “more people are bullish, but many are also actively selling”—a setup that often suggests long positions are becoming crowded.

Now let’s look at sectors. Layer 1 fell by an average of 4.18%, while the PoW sector fell by an average of 4.37%, with none of its 15 coins posting gains. That suggests this sell-off wasn’t limited to one niche. Gold-linked XAU, by contrast, rose 1.9% on $3.28 billion in trading volume, hinting that funds may be shifting toward safe havens.

There were some bright spots, too. ZEREBRO gained 45.9% even as the broader market fell 2.5%, with $397 million in trading volume; ARC rose 38.9%. Rallies in small-cap coins like these, against the market trend, are usually driven by concentrated speculation. They’re extremely volatile and don’t have much to do with the price action of major coins.

For everyday traders, there are two levels to watch: first, whether BTC can reclaim the $80,000 level. Only then can we say this downtrend is easing. Second, if the long/short ratio keeps rising while the price doesn’t, it means bulls are still stubbornly holding on—which is actually a reason to be cautious. Also, don’t chase a small coin just because it’s up 40%; that’s a completely different risk level.

⚠️ This is not investment advice. Futures trading involves risk.

I only share figures I can verify. If I can’t verify them, I’ll say so.

— Neican Jun · Today’s 6th update. I keep a record of what I get right and wrong.

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