#标普500首破7800点创新高
If more than half of stocks have already fallen behind, is the S&P 500 hitting 8,000 a victory for the bull market—or just one last cover-up?
Here’s a very strange statistic: currently, only about 48% of S&P 500 constituents are trading above their 200-day moving average. In other words, the index is still near record highs, while more than half of its stocks have already fallen behind.
Over the past decade, when the S&P hit new highs, that figure averaged around 76%.
This reminds me of 2000 and 2007. Back then, the index looked prosperous on the surface, while its internals grew weaker and weaker. It wasn’t until the last few heavyweight stocks could no longer hold up that the bear market truly became apparent.
What you clever folks need to watch out for next is that AI giants may have become the last support holding up the U.S. stock market. If earnings expectations are revised downward while Treasury yields remain elevated, the market may not even have enough liquidity to retreat.
And if U.S. stocks undergo systemic deleveraging, BTC and altcoins could be swept away in the fallout!
So, keeping leverage under control, holding on to cash, and saving some ammunition at least—then waiting until the U.S. midterm elections are over before looking for the right time to deploy it—might be a wise move?
#交易员押注美联储再加息三次
If more than half of stocks have already fallen behind, is the S&P 500 hitting 8,000 a victory for the bull market—or just one last cover-up?
Here’s a very strange statistic: currently, only about 48% of S&P 500 constituents are trading above their 200-day moving average. In other words, the index is still near record highs, while more than half of its stocks have already fallen behind.
Over the past decade, when the S&P hit new highs, that figure averaged around 76%.
This reminds me of 2000 and 2007. Back then, the index looked prosperous on the surface, while its internals grew weaker and weaker. It wasn’t until the last few heavyweight stocks could no longer hold up that the bear market truly became apparent.
What you clever folks need to watch out for next is that AI giants may have become the last support holding up the U.S. stock market. If earnings expectations are revised downward while Treasury yields remain elevated, the market may not even have enough liquidity to retreat.
And if U.S. stocks undergo systemic deleveraging, BTC and altcoins could be swept away in the fallout!
So, keeping leverage under control, holding on to cash, and saving some ammunition at least—then waiting until the U.S. midterm elections are over before looking for the right time to deploy it—might be a wise move?
#交易员押注美联储再加息三次