Yesterday, semiconductor stocks took a heavy hit amid concerns over AI spending. At today’s Asian open, South Korea’s index plunged 7.5%, with chip stocks leading the losses and cries of “the bubble has burst” everywhere.

Then TSMC delivered its results: Q3 net profit rose 68.7% year over year to a record high, and the midpoint of its Q4 guidance implies 58% year-over-year growth. On the earnings call, the company said the gap between AI demand and supply remains substantial. The stock initially fell in after-hours trading, then recovered—neither bulls nor bears managed to convince the other.

Tonight at 20:30, we get PPI, retail sales, and initial jobless claims, one after another. Tomorrow, Warsh speaks at the IMF—his final public appearance before the FOMC meeting. This week, the data and the Fed chair each get half the spotlight.

When earnings and sentiment are at odds, I usually take a step back and watch first. Rushing to pick a side rarely pays off.

#芯片 #PPI