Ares’s exact words last night: My assessment depends on two scenarios:
* If core inflation comes in below market expectations while the dollar and Treasury yields retreat, that would be favorable for BTC. A four-hour close above 84,400 followed by a successful retest would put it in a better position to challenge 86,500–87,300.
* If core inflation comes in above expectations and the dollar and yields strengthen, BTC could come under pressure. If it closes below 82,300, watch for another test of 80,400–81,100. That was the forecast.
* If core inflation comes in below market expectations while the dollar and Treasury yields retreat, that would be favorable for BTC. A four-hour close above 84,400 followed by a successful retest would put it in a better position to challenge 86,500–87,300.
* If core inflation comes in above expectations and the dollar and yields strengthen, BTC could come under pressure. If it closes below 82,300, watch for another test of 80,400–81,100. That was the forecast.