$ZEC Over the past 24 hours, the price fell 12%, dropping from 1263 to 1112. But measured in coins, contract open interest didn’t fall—it rose from 442,800 coins to 457,000. In dollar terms, open interest shrank from $561 million to $503 million; all that disappeared was price, not positions. The price is falling, but longs haven’t left—instead, they keep buying the dip.
Now let’s see who’s buying. The share of accounts net long across the market rose from 39.4% to 45.3%, while Binance’s large-holder long/short position ratio climbed from 1.45 to 1.61. Retail traders and large holders are on the same side this time. Funding rates have been positive in recent periods, around +0.0065%, with longs consistently paying.
The significance of this move lies in where it happened. The lows at 1112 on October 8 and 1122 on October 13 had both held, but at 10 a.m. today, a single one-hour bearish candle with $298 million in volume broke through them. The price bottomed at 1081.68, and aggressive sell orders accounted for 54.4% of trades during that hour. From the September 26 high of 1699, ZEC has now retraced 36%. The daily 14-period ATR is 116, so a move of over 100 points in a day is normal; 1081 is less than 3% below the current price. The daily EMA50 at 1184.7 is now overhead resistance, while the 1-hour RSI14 has fallen to 30.4, just touching the edge of oversold territory. It’s still a long way from flattening out and bottoming.
The mechanics are simple: the old double bottom has become a cost zone for dip-buying longs. The 1112–1122 range is now where those traders may try to break even and get out, and they’ve most likely placed their stops below today’s low of 1081. If the price dips again, the 14,000 coins’ worth of long positions added over the past 24 hours could turn from buying pressure into forced selling. The daily Bollinger lower band is at 1044—that’s the next level I’m watching.
My view is that this sell-off hasn’t finished flushing out weak hands. Longs adding to positions against the trend isn’t a bottom signal; it means there’s still supply that hasn’t been released. I’m not holding any ZEC right now, and at this price I’d rather miss the rebound. I’ll start calculating the upside potential once open interest falls along with the price and the share of long accounts drops back below 40%. Until then, I’ll treat every rebound into the 1112–1122 range as an exit for longs.
#ZEC #Contract Open Interest
Now let’s see who’s buying. The share of accounts net long across the market rose from 39.4% to 45.3%, while Binance’s large-holder long/short position ratio climbed from 1.45 to 1.61. Retail traders and large holders are on the same side this time. Funding rates have been positive in recent periods, around +0.0065%, with longs consistently paying.
The significance of this move lies in where it happened. The lows at 1112 on October 8 and 1122 on October 13 had both held, but at 10 a.m. today, a single one-hour bearish candle with $298 million in volume broke through them. The price bottomed at 1081.68, and aggressive sell orders accounted for 54.4% of trades during that hour. From the September 26 high of 1699, ZEC has now retraced 36%. The daily 14-period ATR is 116, so a move of over 100 points in a day is normal; 1081 is less than 3% below the current price. The daily EMA50 at 1184.7 is now overhead resistance, while the 1-hour RSI14 has fallen to 30.4, just touching the edge of oversold territory. It’s still a long way from flattening out and bottoming.
The mechanics are simple: the old double bottom has become a cost zone for dip-buying longs. The 1112–1122 range is now where those traders may try to break even and get out, and they’ve most likely placed their stops below today’s low of 1081. If the price dips again, the 14,000 coins’ worth of long positions added over the past 24 hours could turn from buying pressure into forced selling. The daily Bollinger lower band is at 1044—that’s the next level I’m watching.
My view is that this sell-off hasn’t finished flushing out weak hands. Longs adding to positions against the trend isn’t a bottom signal; it means there’s still supply that hasn’t been released. I’m not holding any ZEC right now, and at this price I’d rather miss the rebound. I’ll start calculating the upside potential once open interest falls along with the price and the share of long accounts drops back below 40%. Until then, I’ll treat every rebound into the 1112–1122 range as an exit for longs.
#ZEC #Contract Open Interest