This morning I said BTC was testing the $81,500 cost-basis line for the third time, and that “the daily close would decide it”—now we have the answer: it didn’t hold.
Over 24 hours, $BTC fell from around $83,700 to about $81,200. The intraday low was $80,226. The ETF cost-basis line at $81,500 was officially breached, leaving the $80,000 level exposed.
How I see it (my opinion):
The trigger for this sell-off is clear: September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year, far above expectations, while New York Fed President Williams said there might be another rate hike this year. The market repriced its rate expectations overnight. The significance of breaking below the cost-basis line is that institutions holding these ETFs are now sitting on unrealized losses. Selling pressure could build momentum, and short-term bulls may be reluctant to catch a falling knife.
But that doesn’t mean the fundamentals have deteriorated: the $81,500 level held twice before finally breaking on the third test, which shows the defense put up a strong fight. To see whether institutions are systematically cutting losses, we’ll need to watch tonight’s data.
Two possible scenarios from here: U.S. September PPI is due at 20:30 tonight. If it also comes in hotter than expected, the $80,000 level will likely be tested. If PPI cools, reclaiming $81,500 may not be far off.
I’ll keep tracking key levels like this—follow me so you don’t miss an update.
Are you still holding BTC? Near the cost-basis line, are you adding or reducing your position?
Data as of: 2026-10-15 03:15 UTC
Sources: Finnhub market data; Metamask BTC market page
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
Over 24 hours, $BTC fell from around $83,700 to about $81,200. The intraday low was $80,226. The ETF cost-basis line at $81,500 was officially breached, leaving the $80,000 level exposed.
How I see it (my opinion):
The trigger for this sell-off is clear: September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year, far above expectations, while New York Fed President Williams said there might be another rate hike this year. The market repriced its rate expectations overnight. The significance of breaking below the cost-basis line is that institutions holding these ETFs are now sitting on unrealized losses. Selling pressure could build momentum, and short-term bulls may be reluctant to catch a falling knife.
But that doesn’t mean the fundamentals have deteriorated: the $81,500 level held twice before finally breaking on the third test, which shows the defense put up a strong fight. To see whether institutions are systematically cutting losses, we’ll need to watch tonight’s data.
Two possible scenarios from here: U.S. September PPI is due at 20:30 tonight. If it also comes in hotter than expected, the $80,000 level will likely be tested. If PPI cools, reclaiming $81,500 may not be far off.
I’ll keep tracking key levels like this—follow me so you don’t miss an update.
Are you still holding BTC? Near the cost-basis line, are you adding or reducing your position?
Data as of: 2026-10-15 03:15 UTC
Sources: Finnhub market data; Metamask BTC market page
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.