PPI prints tomorrow at 8:30. FinTwit will obsess. The number itself doesn't matter — what happens over the next 20 days does.
We ran 224 PPI releases across 18 years on $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM. Every print classified as hot (above forecast) or cold (at or below).
PPI day itself? Statistically indistinguishable from any other day. p-values 0.41 to 0.56 — no edge.
The real edge is the forward window.
After a cold PPI (at or below forecast), 20-day returns:
$SPY: +1.26%, 72% win rate (p = 0.002)
$QQQ: +2.06%, 71% win rate (p < 0.0001)
$IWM: +1.31%, 66% win rate (p = 0.01)
Bootstrap confidence intervals exclude zero across all three. The signal holds.
After a hot PPI? No significant edge at any horizon. Hot prints are noise.
Out-of-sample check: The cold PPI signal is actually stronger post-2018 than before.
$SPY cold, 20-day: +0.72% → +1.85%
$QQQ cold, 20-day: +1.43% → +2.56%
The edge isn't decaying. It's intensifying.
Why it works: Cold PPI → lower inflation pressure → less Fed hawkishness → equities rally.
Three things the data says about tomorrow:
Before 9:30 → Don't position ahead. The edge is in the reaction, not the prediction.
By 10:00 → Gap direction matches the close 63–74% of the time.
If the print is at or below +0.6% → The 20-day buy signal fires. $QQQ's historical average is +2.06%, 71% win rate.
Don't trade the headline. Trade the 20-day window if it's cold.
We ran 224 PPI releases across 18 years on $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM. Every print classified as hot (above forecast) or cold (at or below).
PPI day itself? Statistically indistinguishable from any other day. p-values 0.41 to 0.56 — no edge.
The real edge is the forward window.
After a cold PPI (at or below forecast), 20-day returns:
$SPY: +1.26%, 72% win rate (p = 0.002)
$QQQ: +2.06%, 71% win rate (p < 0.0001)
$IWM: +1.31%, 66% win rate (p = 0.01)
Bootstrap confidence intervals exclude zero across all three. The signal holds.
After a hot PPI? No significant edge at any horizon. Hot prints are noise.
Out-of-sample check: The cold PPI signal is actually stronger post-2018 than before.
$SPY cold, 20-day: +0.72% → +1.85%
$QQQ cold, 20-day: +1.43% → +2.56%
The edge isn't decaying. It's intensifying.
Why it works: Cold PPI → lower inflation pressure → less Fed hawkishness → equities rally.
Three things the data says about tomorrow:
Before 9:30 → Don't position ahead. The edge is in the reaction, not the prediction.
By 10:00 → Gap direction matches the close 63–74% of the time.
If the print is at or below +0.6% → The 20-day buy signal fires. $QQQ's historical average is +2.06%, 71% win rate.
Don't trade the headline. Trade the 20-day window if it's cold.