#9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何
U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year over year and 0.6% month over month in September. Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 2.6% year over year and 0.3% month over month. Energy prices surged 20.4% year over year, showing that inflationary pressure is clearly concentrated in energy. Don’t focus only on headline CPI: core monthly inflation hasn’t spiraled out of control in tandem, so the conclusion that “interest rates are bound to keep climbing” doesn’t hold up.
On the day of the release, front-month WTI futures settled at $95.09 per barrel, up about 1.0% from the previous trading day. U.S. Treasury yields moved in opposite directions: the 2-year yield rose 3 basis points to 4.82%, while the 10-year yield fell 2 basis points to 5.19%. The short end is repricing the policy rate, while the long end is still weighing growth against inflation. The market has offered no one-way verdict.
Crude oil is stronger in the near term; short-term Treasury yields are under pressure, while long-term yields are fluctuating. If oil prices keep rising and the 2-year yield follows, bets on rate cuts will take another hit, tightening the valuation environment for risk assets such as $BTC. If oil prices pull back and core inflation remains moderate, a decline in long-term yields could give risk assets some breathing room. For now, don’t read one CPI report as either “inflation is back” or “rate cuts are a sure thing.” Watch whether oil prices can keep rising and whether the 2-year yield can stay elevated.
U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year over year and 0.6% month over month in September. Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 2.6% year over year and 0.3% month over month. Energy prices surged 20.4% year over year, showing that inflationary pressure is clearly concentrated in energy. Don’t focus only on headline CPI: core monthly inflation hasn’t spiraled out of control in tandem, so the conclusion that “interest rates are bound to keep climbing” doesn’t hold up.
On the day of the release, front-month WTI futures settled at $95.09 per barrel, up about 1.0% from the previous trading day. U.S. Treasury yields moved in opposite directions: the 2-year yield rose 3 basis points to 4.82%, while the 10-year yield fell 2 basis points to 5.19%. The short end is repricing the policy rate, while the long end is still weighing growth against inflation. The market has offered no one-way verdict.
Crude oil is stronger in the near term; short-term Treasury yields are under pressure, while long-term yields are fluctuating. If oil prices keep rising and the 2-year yield follows, bets on rate cuts will take another hit, tightening the valuation environment for risk assets such as $BTC. If oil prices pull back and core inflation remains moderate, a decline in long-term yields could give risk assets some breathing room. For now, don’t read one CPI report as either “inflation is back” or “rate cuts are a sure thing.” Watch whether oil prices can keep rising and whether the 2-year yield can stay elevated.