The market action around yesterday’s CPI release was fascinating.
As soon as the data came out, Treasuries plunged sharply, sending yields straight toward historic highs. But then, as U.S. stocks fluctuated and drifted lower, Treasuries began a choppy climb. By the close, they had finished right at the day’s high, staging an exceptionally textbook and decisive V-shaped reversal.
CPI came in hotter than expected, reigniting rate-hike expectations, and the market instinctively sold first and asked questions later. But the powerful rally in the second half of the session was a different story: it was a classic case of safe-haven money forcing its way in and scooping up bonds. Treasuries’ traditional safe-haven appeal had been reawakened.
This sent an exceptionally clear signal: major market players have reached a strong consensus around current yield levels. Recent Treasury auction data also suggest that big investors are eager to buy the dip, leaving bears virtually no room to push prices lower.
The longer-term picture makes the inevitability of this shift in capital even clearer.
With the midterm elections approaching, it will be difficult for U.S. stocks to sustain a one-way bull market amid heightened political uncertainty. And after the recent string of sell-offs in AI hardware stocks—which had previously surged ahead—the pressure on equities has reached a critical point.
When the stock market can’t offer enough risk premium, smart money will inevitably turn to safe assets like Treasuries, which offer both yield and liquidity. No matter how defiant the Fed sounds in the short term or how it adjusts its rate-hike path, it can’t stop this shift in capital flows.
That said, I remain cautious about labeling this a “recession.” CPI is still elevated, which in itself suggests that inflation remains sticky and the economy still has overheating momentum.
Rather than hastily declaring a recession, it’s more accurate to view this as a reallocation of capital: a deflating of bubbles in equities and a repricing of fixed-income assets.
For on-chain and macro positioning, what will really determine the next move isn’t what the Fed says, but when this flight to safety starts spilling over and seeking high-risk alpha again after Treasury yields peak.$NVDAB
#美国9月CPI升至3.7% #9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
As soon as the data came out, Treasuries plunged sharply, sending yields straight toward historic highs. But then, as U.S. stocks fluctuated and drifted lower, Treasuries began a choppy climb. By the close, they had finished right at the day’s high, staging an exceptionally textbook and decisive V-shaped reversal.
CPI came in hotter than expected, reigniting rate-hike expectations, and the market instinctively sold first and asked questions later. But the powerful rally in the second half of the session was a different story: it was a classic case of safe-haven money forcing its way in and scooping up bonds. Treasuries’ traditional safe-haven appeal had been reawakened.
This sent an exceptionally clear signal: major market players have reached a strong consensus around current yield levels. Recent Treasury auction data also suggest that big investors are eager to buy the dip, leaving bears virtually no room to push prices lower.
The longer-term picture makes the inevitability of this shift in capital even clearer.
With the midterm elections approaching, it will be difficult for U.S. stocks to sustain a one-way bull market amid heightened political uncertainty. And after the recent string of sell-offs in AI hardware stocks—which had previously surged ahead—the pressure on equities has reached a critical point.
When the stock market can’t offer enough risk premium, smart money will inevitably turn to safe assets like Treasuries, which offer both yield and liquidity. No matter how defiant the Fed sounds in the short term or how it adjusts its rate-hike path, it can’t stop this shift in capital flows.
That said, I remain cautious about labeling this a “recession.” CPI is still elevated, which in itself suggests that inflation remains sticky and the economy still has overheating momentum.
Rather than hastily declaring a recession, it’s more accurate to view this as a reallocation of capital: a deflating of bubbles in equities and a repricing of fixed-income assets.
For on-chain and macro positioning, what will really determine the next move isn’t what the Fed says, but when this flight to safety starts spilling over and seeking high-risk alpha again after Treasury yields peak.$NVDAB
#美国9月CPI升至3.7% #9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何