#BTC Market Analysis 10/15
Yesterday, I said that if a large bearish candle broke straight below the 4-hour EMA200, we should wait for a rebound to go short.
Last night, the 4-hour candle closed at 81599 after a sharp drop, breaking below the EMA200. It then rebounded to a high of 82070, but still failed to reclaim the moving average.
Price is currently around 81700. I wouldn’t chase a short at this level.
1. Wait for a rebound to 82800–83300 today
The 4-hour EMA21, daily EMA21, and 1-hour EMA200 are all in this area. If price rebounds into this zone, then turns lower and the 1-hour candle closes back below 82800, a small short position could be considered.
Stop-loss at 84500. First target: 81000, then 80350. If the 4-hour chart regains and holds above 83300, cancel this rebound-short plan.
2. New positions are joining the decline, but the broader range hasn’t broken yet
Last night, core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, above the market expectation of 0.2%, so inflationary pressure remains.
Price pulled back, but OI increased by around 8% over the past 24 hours. This suggests new positions are building. Combined with the weak rebound after support broke, short-term sellers have the upper hand.
But the previous low at 80350 hasn’t broken, so don’t chase the move as if it were a one-way decline. If you entered longs early yesterday, reduce your position on a rebound. Don’t let a rebound trade turn into a long-term hold.
PPI is also due at 20:30 tonight. Don’t bet heavily on the data.
Main plan for today: after support gives way, wait for a rebound to go short; don’t chase at the lows. If price doesn’t reach the levels, stay out.
This is my trading plan. If I’m wrong, I’ll take the stop-loss—no stubbornly holding on.
Yesterday, I said that if a large bearish candle broke straight below the 4-hour EMA200, we should wait for a rebound to go short.
Last night, the 4-hour candle closed at 81599 after a sharp drop, breaking below the EMA200. It then rebounded to a high of 82070, but still failed to reclaim the moving average.
Price is currently around 81700. I wouldn’t chase a short at this level.
1. Wait for a rebound to 82800–83300 today
The 4-hour EMA21, daily EMA21, and 1-hour EMA200 are all in this area. If price rebounds into this zone, then turns lower and the 1-hour candle closes back below 82800, a small short position could be considered.
Stop-loss at 84500. First target: 81000, then 80350. If the 4-hour chart regains and holds above 83300, cancel this rebound-short plan.
2. New positions are joining the decline, but the broader range hasn’t broken yet
Last night, core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, above the market expectation of 0.2%, so inflationary pressure remains.
Price pulled back, but OI increased by around 8% over the past 24 hours. This suggests new positions are building. Combined with the weak rebound after support broke, short-term sellers have the upper hand.
But the previous low at 80350 hasn’t broken, so don’t chase the move as if it were a one-way decline. If you entered longs early yesterday, reduce your position on a rebound. Don’t let a rebound trade turn into a long-term hold.
PPI is also due at 20:30 tonight. Don’t bet heavily on the data.
Main plan for today: after support gives way, wait for a rebound to go short; don’t chase at the lows. If price doesn’t reach the levels, stay out.
This is my trading plan. If I’m wrong, I’ll take the stop-loss—no stubbornly holding on.