The day after the CPI report, BTC still hasn’t bounced back 😅
Last night’s wick wasn’t the bottom.
BTC slid from $82.8K to around $81.6K.
ETH was even weaker, briefly dropping more than 5% to $2,437.
Across the market, $172 million in positions were liquidated in four hours.
But the more I look at this CPI report, the stranger it seems.
Gasoline prices rose 9.1% in September alone.
That one item accounted for more than half of the monthly increase.
The energy index rose 5.2%.
Brent crude is still hovering around $106.
Put simply, this time inflation came in hotter than expected
because of oil prices—not because everyone went on a spending spree.
The Fed is in a tough spot, too.
Rate hikes can cool demand, but they can’t bring down oil prices.
The market doesn’t care, though.
The implied probability of a rate hike in October has jumped from around 20% to 47%.
The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to around 5.3%.
With the dollar strengthening, even gold has fallen below $4,100—and crypto is taking an even bigger hit.
The next two days are more important.
Retail sales and initial jobless claims are due tonight.
Fed officials are also speaking over the next couple of days, and the blackout period begins Saturday.
If any voting member says a move in October is genuinely on the table,
BTC’s $80K level will face another test.
My take is simple:
Don’t rush to buy the dip or call a reversal just yet.
First, see whether oil prices can come down and yields can pull back.
Until those two ease up, BTC will remain under pressure from macro forces.
What do you think—is inflation really making a comeback, or is this just a one-off spike driven by oil prices?
$BTC $ETH
#CPIWatch #CPI #FederalReserve
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.
Last night’s wick wasn’t the bottom.
BTC slid from $82.8K to around $81.6K.
ETH was even weaker, briefly dropping more than 5% to $2,437.
Across the market, $172 million in positions were liquidated in four hours.
But the more I look at this CPI report, the stranger it seems.
Gasoline prices rose 9.1% in September alone.
That one item accounted for more than half of the monthly increase.
The energy index rose 5.2%.
Brent crude is still hovering around $106.
Put simply, this time inflation came in hotter than expected
because of oil prices—not because everyone went on a spending spree.
The Fed is in a tough spot, too.
Rate hikes can cool demand, but they can’t bring down oil prices.
The market doesn’t care, though.
The implied probability of a rate hike in October has jumped from around 20% to 47%.
The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to around 5.3%.
With the dollar strengthening, even gold has fallen below $4,100—and crypto is taking an even bigger hit.
The next two days are more important.
Retail sales and initial jobless claims are due tonight.
Fed officials are also speaking over the next couple of days, and the blackout period begins Saturday.
If any voting member says a move in October is genuinely on the table,
BTC’s $80K level will face another test.
My take is simple:
Don’t rush to buy the dip or call a reversal just yet.
First, see whether oil prices can come down and yields can pull back.
Until those two ease up, BTC will remain under pressure from macro forces.
What do you think—is inflation really making a comeback, or is this just a one-off spike driven by oil prices?
$BTC $ETH
#CPIWatch #CPI #FederalReserve
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.