🇨🇳 Yuwa Report: China’s “expected population” fell 75% in a decade; current birth-support measures can barely halt the decline
On October 13, the Yuwa Population Research Institute released the World Expected Population Report 2026. It said China’s “expected population” indicator fell from 1.07 billion in 2016 to 264 million in 2025, a drop of 75.3%, putting it below the United States’ 285 million according to the report’s methodology.
The report stressed that China has a “strong material foundation” for robust support for childbearing. At the same time, it stated bluntly: “Given the current level of support for childbearing, it will be difficult not only to improve the expected population, but even to prevent this indicator from continuing to weaken.”
“Expected population” is a composite indicator calculated by the research institute based on the number of births in a given year, fertility levels, life expectancy, and other factors. It is used to measure the long-term implications of current population trends; it is not a forecast of the actual population in any particular year.
On October 13, the Yuwa Population Research Institute released the World Expected Population Report 2026. It said China’s “expected population” indicator fell from 1.07 billion in 2016 to 264 million in 2025, a drop of 75.3%, putting it below the United States’ 285 million according to the report’s methodology.
The report stressed that China has a “strong material foundation” for robust support for childbearing. At the same time, it stated bluntly: “Given the current level of support for childbearing, it will be difficult not only to improve the expected population, but even to prevent this indicator from continuing to weaken.”
“Expected population” is a composite indicator calculated by the research institute based on the number of births in a given year, fertility levels, life expectancy, and other factors. It is used to measure the long-term implications of current population trends; it is not a forecast of the actual population in any particular year.