Last night, CPI came in at 3.7%, above expectations → the odds of an October rate hike doubled overnight, and there’s still another potential bomb to defuse tonight at 20:30.
Last night, U.S. CPI for September came in at 3.7% overall (3.6% expected) and 2.6% core (2.5% expected). Within a minute of the release, $BTC plunged from around 83,800 to below 82,800.
Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. September PPI will be released. The forecast is 5.4% year over year, unchanged, with core PPI at 4.4%. Here are a few key figures to keep in mind:
1. Rate hike odds: 22% before CPI → about 49% now, essentially doubling overnight
2. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.3%, while the 2-year yield is nearing 4.9%
3. $BTC is currently around $81,705, just $200 above the ETF average cost basis of $81,500
4. $ETH has climbed back above 2,459, with resistance at 2,544
PPI is an upstream indicator of CPI, and we have two consecutive inflation reports coming before the October 28 rate-setting meeting. My take: last night’s CPI has already put an October rate hike back on the table. If tonight’s PPI also comes in above expectations, a hike is all but certain, and Bitcoin will probably test the ETF cost basis at $81,500. On the other hand, if PPI cools, that could dampen bearish sentiment, and BTC may reclaim $83,000.
Both scenarios are possible; the key is what triggers them:
- PPI year over year above 5.4% → rate hike expectations rise further; watch the $81,500 cost-basis level for support
- PPI year over year below expectations → sentiment improves; first watch whether $83,000 is reclaimed
A quick reminder: volatility can be extreme around the release. If you have leveraged positions, be especially mindful of liquidation risk tonight. There’s no need for long-term spot holders to stay up worrying.
Data as of: 2026-10-14 21:00 UTC
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (PPI release schedule); Dow Jones/Morningstar (CPI data); CoinDesk (market reaction); CMC Markets (PPI consensus forecast)
For informational purposes only; this is not investment advice.
Would you place orders ahead of the release, or wait until the data is out before making a move?
Last night, U.S. CPI for September came in at 3.7% overall (3.6% expected) and 2.6% core (2.5% expected). Within a minute of the release, $BTC plunged from around 83,800 to below 82,800.
Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. September PPI will be released. The forecast is 5.4% year over year, unchanged, with core PPI at 4.4%. Here are a few key figures to keep in mind:
1. Rate hike odds: 22% before CPI → about 49% now, essentially doubling overnight
2. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.3%, while the 2-year yield is nearing 4.9%
3. $BTC is currently around $81,705, just $200 above the ETF average cost basis of $81,500
4. $ETH has climbed back above 2,459, with resistance at 2,544
PPI is an upstream indicator of CPI, and we have two consecutive inflation reports coming before the October 28 rate-setting meeting. My take: last night’s CPI has already put an October rate hike back on the table. If tonight’s PPI also comes in above expectations, a hike is all but certain, and Bitcoin will probably test the ETF cost basis at $81,500. On the other hand, if PPI cools, that could dampen bearish sentiment, and BTC may reclaim $83,000.
Both scenarios are possible; the key is what triggers them:
- PPI year over year above 5.4% → rate hike expectations rise further; watch the $81,500 cost-basis level for support
- PPI year over year below expectations → sentiment improves; first watch whether $83,000 is reclaimed
A quick reminder: volatility can be extreme around the release. If you have leveraged positions, be especially mindful of liquidation risk tonight. There’s no need for long-term spot holders to stay up worrying.
Data as of: 2026-10-14 21:00 UTC
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (PPI release schedule); Dow Jones/Morningstar (CPI data); CoinDesk (market reaction); CMC Markets (PPI consensus forecast)
For informational purposes only; this is not investment advice.
Would you place orders ahead of the release, or wait until the data is out before making a move?