$AVA ’s breakout lasted less than an hour before a large bearish candle sent it back down. If you chased the breakout in the early hours, read this to the end.
At around 04:40 Beijing time on October 15, Binance spot $AVA was trading at 0.2948, with its 24-hour gain narrowing from +40% around 03:00 to +24.5%. The 03:00 hourly candle reached a high of 0.3387 and closed at 0.3301. After opening at 0.3308 at 04:00, the market abruptly turned: it first plunged to 0.3057 in 15 minutes, then bounced to 0.3199 but failed to hold, before dipping again to 0.2937. The price has now fallen back below the breakout level of 0.3207 I mentioned in my previous post and is testing the 0.30 mark.
Why the drop? To be honest, as before, I haven’t found any new negative news—just as there was no clear catalyst for the rise, there’s none for the fall either. The broader market is still weak: $BTC 24h is down 1.8% around 81,800, and $ETH is down 3.6%. This looks more like concentrated profit-taking in a thinly traded market. With 24-hour spot trading volume of about 10.77 million USDT, the market couldn’t absorb the selling pressure above 0.33. Trading volume during the 04:00 hour was already comparable to that during the breakout hour, suggesting buyers and sellers exchanged positions at higher levels.
My view: stick to the rules set out in my previous post; don’t change course on the fly. 0.3207 has been lost, so the breakout thesis is downgraded for now. If the 1h candle closes below 0.30, this move will be confirmed as a false breakout, with the next level to watch around 0.274 (the consolidation zone from the evening of October 14). On the other hand, if the price can reclaim 0.3207 and hold above it at the 1h close, my reversal call is invalidated. I still haven’t been able to check futures funding rates or open interest (data source limitations), so don’t try to tough it out with leverage at a level like this.
Risk warning: Small-cap coins have thin liquidity, and a 13% drop in just a few minutes is par for the course. This is only my personal tracking record, not investment advice. Decide on your own position size and stop-loss.
Do you think AVA has topped out, or is this just a shakeout before another attempt at 0.3387? Let’s discuss in the comments.
#AVA #Travala #山寨币 #SurgeWatch
At around 04:40 Beijing time on October 15, Binance spot $AVA was trading at 0.2948, with its 24-hour gain narrowing from +40% around 03:00 to +24.5%. The 03:00 hourly candle reached a high of 0.3387 and closed at 0.3301. After opening at 0.3308 at 04:00, the market abruptly turned: it first plunged to 0.3057 in 15 minutes, then bounced to 0.3199 but failed to hold, before dipping again to 0.2937. The price has now fallen back below the breakout level of 0.3207 I mentioned in my previous post and is testing the 0.30 mark.
Why the drop? To be honest, as before, I haven’t found any new negative news—just as there was no clear catalyst for the rise, there’s none for the fall either. The broader market is still weak: $BTC 24h is down 1.8% around 81,800, and $ETH is down 3.6%. This looks more like concentrated profit-taking in a thinly traded market. With 24-hour spot trading volume of about 10.77 million USDT, the market couldn’t absorb the selling pressure above 0.33. Trading volume during the 04:00 hour was already comparable to that during the breakout hour, suggesting buyers and sellers exchanged positions at higher levels.
My view: stick to the rules set out in my previous post; don’t change course on the fly. 0.3207 has been lost, so the breakout thesis is downgraded for now. If the 1h candle closes below 0.30, this move will be confirmed as a false breakout, with the next level to watch around 0.274 (the consolidation zone from the evening of October 14). On the other hand, if the price can reclaim 0.3207 and hold above it at the 1h close, my reversal call is invalidated. I still haven’t been able to check futures funding rates or open interest (data source limitations), so don’t try to tough it out with leverage at a level like this.
Risk warning: Small-cap coins have thin liquidity, and a 13% drop in just a few minutes is par for the course. This is only my personal tracking record, not investment advice. Decide on your own position size and stop-loss.
Do you think AVA has topped out, or is this just a shakeout before another attempt at 0.3387? Let’s discuss in the comments.
#AVA #Travala #山寨币 #SurgeWatch