September CPI is out: core CPI came in at 2.6%, a notch higher than expected.
This afternoon I specifically said the focus wasn’t on the headline number but on core—that’s exactly why. The headline figure was pushed up hard by oil prices; gasoline rose nearly 10% in a month, and the market had already priced that in. Core is what the Fed really watches. With it coming in above expectations, the odds of a rate hike in December shot straight up to 90%.
This afternoon I said $82,000 was the first level to buy into for BTC; if it dipped below and bounced back, we’d be fine. But it didn’t bounce back. It’s at $81,900 now, and it’s clearly failing to hold. I got this one wrong.
Oil is at $95, Brent is still stuck at $106, and Treasury yields pushed higher again after the data came out. Put all three together and it means one thing: money is getting more expensive, and risk assets are in for a rough time.
Everyone on the platform is calling for rate hikes tonight. Yesterday, these same people were all saying rate cuts were coming.
Now we’re watching the $80,000 round-number level below. Market manipulators love to wick through round numbers, and if it does dip below, that could actually be an opportunity. If it can’t even hold $80,000, then this cycle will have to move down a level. Don’t chase shorts here—you could easily get liquidated.
$BTC
#9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何
This afternoon I specifically said the focus wasn’t on the headline number but on core—that’s exactly why. The headline figure was pushed up hard by oil prices; gasoline rose nearly 10% in a month, and the market had already priced that in. Core is what the Fed really watches. With it coming in above expectations, the odds of a rate hike in December shot straight up to 90%.
This afternoon I said $82,000 was the first level to buy into for BTC; if it dipped below and bounced back, we’d be fine. But it didn’t bounce back. It’s at $81,900 now, and it’s clearly failing to hold. I got this one wrong.
Oil is at $95, Brent is still stuck at $106, and Treasury yields pushed higher again after the data came out. Put all three together and it means one thing: money is getting more expensive, and risk assets are in for a rough time.
Everyone on the platform is calling for rate hikes tonight. Yesterday, these same people were all saying rate cuts were coming.
Now we’re watching the $80,000 round-number level below. Market manipulators love to wick through round numbers, and if it does dip below, that could actually be an opportunity. If it can’t even hold $80,000, then this cycle will have to move down a level. Don’t chase shorts here—you could easily get liquidated.
$BTC
#9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何