At noon, I wrote that fewer rate hikes could also make room for $BTC . Tonight’s CPI hasn’t backed up that optimism, at least for now.
The U.S. just released September CPI: up 3.7% year over year, above the expected 3.6%. Excluding food and energy, core CPI was still up 0.3% month over month, above the expected 0.2%.
After the data was released, $BTC fell by about $1,000 to around $82,800. The two-year Treasury yield rose about 13 basis points to 4.924%, while gold also fell 1.5% over the same period.
BTC and gold both came under pressure, showing that in this moment, the long-term “inflation hedge” narrative wasn’t enough to offset the impact of higher rates. Rising yields on dollar-denominated assets and higher borrowing costs both raise the bar for holding risk assets.
So I’m lowering my expectations for near-term easing of macroeconomic pressure. Our discussion at noon assumed the data would support fewer rate hikes; tonight, that assumption wasn’t borne out. Whether rates will be raised in October remains uncertain, but the market has already started pricing in that possibility.
#Bitcoin #CPI
The U.S. just released September CPI: up 3.7% year over year, above the expected 3.6%. Excluding food and energy, core CPI was still up 0.3% month over month, above the expected 0.2%.
After the data was released, $BTC fell by about $1,000 to around $82,800. The two-year Treasury yield rose about 13 basis points to 4.924%, while gold also fell 1.5% over the same period.
BTC and gold both came under pressure, showing that in this moment, the long-term “inflation hedge” narrative wasn’t enough to offset the impact of higher rates. Rising yields on dollar-denominated assets and higher borrowing costs both raise the bar for holding risk assets.
So I’m lowering my expectations for near-term easing of macroeconomic pressure. Our discussion at noon assumed the data would support fewer rate hikes; tonight, that assumption wasn’t borne out. Whether rates will be raised in October remains uncertain, but the market has already started pricing in that possibility.
#Bitcoin #CPI