October 14, 8:30 a.m. ET—the numbers are in.
September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year, above the 3.6% expected; core CPI was 0.3% month over month, above the 0.2% expected; and core CPI was 2.6% year over year, above the 2.5% expected. All three readings ran hot and beat street consensus.
This was the “Scenario Three”—hotter-than-expected—that I talked about two days ago.
BTC was around 83,800 before the data came out. Afterward, it fell to a low of 82,500–82,800, a drop of about $1,000, or roughly 1.2%.
And then… that was it.
No cascade of liquidations, no further sell-off, no break below 81,300. The market absorbed the hotter-than-expected data in a very “orderly” way.
It makes me want to vent a little—not because the data ran hot, but because this market’s reactions have gone against intuition so many times.
CPI jumped from 3.4% to 3.7% year over year, and core CPI was 0.3% month over month. By textbook logic, that signals “renewed rate-hike pressure,” and BTC should face heavier selling. But Bitget Wallet analyst Lacie Zhang said, “A similar reading could trigger a larger repricing”—which, in reality, didn’t happen.
There may be a few reasons: The probability of no rate hike in October remains at 78.4% (the market doesn’t think this data will turn the October FOMC meeting into a rate-hike meeting); New York Fed President Williams publicly said after the release that “there’s no need to rush into raising rates,” giving the market an anchor of stability; and last week’s $1.19 billion in liquidations flushed out leveraged longs, leaving more confident holders at the bottom.
What makes me want to vent even more is something else: Yesterday, a trader opened a $42.38 million Bitcoin short position ahead of the CPI release, betting on a drop. The data came in hot, but BTC fell only $1,000, so that short was probably stopped out by now.
With both CPI readings beating expectations, BTC fell only 1%—showing that the current price structure is more resilient than I expected two days ago.
The next pricing catalyst is Warsh’s speech on October 16, followed by the FOMC meeting itself on October 27–28. Support at 81,300 is still holding, and 87,400 remains the resistance to break through.
Anyone in the Square who bet on a cooler CPI reading and lost? Tell us how you’re feeling now.
$BTC
September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year, above the 3.6% expected; core CPI was 0.3% month over month, above the 0.2% expected; and core CPI was 2.6% year over year, above the 2.5% expected. All three readings ran hot and beat street consensus.
This was the “Scenario Three”—hotter-than-expected—that I talked about two days ago.
BTC was around 83,800 before the data came out. Afterward, it fell to a low of 82,500–82,800, a drop of about $1,000, or roughly 1.2%.
And then… that was it.
No cascade of liquidations, no further sell-off, no break below 81,300. The market absorbed the hotter-than-expected data in a very “orderly” way.
It makes me want to vent a little—not because the data ran hot, but because this market’s reactions have gone against intuition so many times.
CPI jumped from 3.4% to 3.7% year over year, and core CPI was 0.3% month over month. By textbook logic, that signals “renewed rate-hike pressure,” and BTC should face heavier selling. But Bitget Wallet analyst Lacie Zhang said, “A similar reading could trigger a larger repricing”—which, in reality, didn’t happen.
There may be a few reasons: The probability of no rate hike in October remains at 78.4% (the market doesn’t think this data will turn the October FOMC meeting into a rate-hike meeting); New York Fed President Williams publicly said after the release that “there’s no need to rush into raising rates,” giving the market an anchor of stability; and last week’s $1.19 billion in liquidations flushed out leveraged longs, leaving more confident holders at the bottom.
What makes me want to vent even more is something else: Yesterday, a trader opened a $42.38 million Bitcoin short position ahead of the CPI release, betting on a drop. The data came in hot, but BTC fell only $1,000, so that short was probably stopped out by now.
With both CPI readings beating expectations, BTC fell only 1%—showing that the current price structure is more resilient than I expected two days ago.
The next pricing catalyst is Warsh’s speech on October 16, followed by the FOMC meeting itself on October 27–28. Support at 81,300 is still holding, and 87,400 remains the resistance to break through.
Anyone in the Square who bet on a cooler CPI reading and lost? Tell us how you’re feeling now.
$BTC
