$MUBARAK plunged from 0.0638 to 0.0577 in an hour, hitting a low of 0.0555. It has pulled back nearly 20% in 24 hours. But despite the sharp price drop, it wasn’t the whales dumping in the futures market.
First, let’s look at positioning on both sides. The share of accounts holding net long positions across the market fell from 42.7% at 9 p.m. last night to 34.6% now, while short accounts have climbed to 65.4%. But the whales’ long/short position ratio is still at 3.75, with long positions accounting for 78.9%—hardly changed from around 4.0 last night. Retail traders collectively turned bearish during the sell-off, while the whales’ positioning barely changed.
The number of tokens held confirms this. Futures open interest was about 344 million tokens yesterday afternoon and 348 million before the flash crash. Positions barely expanded over the entire decline. It wasn’t new shorts that pushed the price down; retail traders were cutting losses and flipping short in the existing market. Funding rates have hovered around zero over the past few periods: the last settled at +0.002%, and the next is forecast to be slightly negative. Shorts haven’t been forced to pay an expensive funding rate.
Technically, the 1-hour close has already pierced the Bollinger lower band at 0.0601, and the RSI14 has fallen to 25.9, entering oversold territory. The EMA12 is at 0.0634, still some distance above the price. ATR is about 4.3%, meaning a single candle can move 0.0025. The Bollinger lower band and this hour’s low of 0.0555 are the next two levels to watch.
The mechanics are simple: the whales haven’t reduced their positions, but retail traders have switched from longs to shorts. Short-term selling pressure is coming from panic selling, not from major players unloading. If the whales start reducing their positions next, the next leg down will be more severe; if the price reclaims the Bollinger Band and retail shorts cover, those shorts could instead become fuel for a rebound.
My take on $MUBARAK is that this drop looks more like panic selling by retail traders pushing the price outside the Bollinger Band than whales distributing. I don’t hold any, and I won’t buy the bounce at this level. I’ll consider the flush close to ending only if the 1-hour candle reclaims 0.0601 and the share of retail long accounts rises above 40%. If 0.0555 gives way, we’ll need to reassess the next support level; the Bollinger Band won’t contain it.
#MUBARAK #DivergenceInPositions
First, let’s look at positioning on both sides. The share of accounts holding net long positions across the market fell from 42.7% at 9 p.m. last night to 34.6% now, while short accounts have climbed to 65.4%. But the whales’ long/short position ratio is still at 3.75, with long positions accounting for 78.9%—hardly changed from around 4.0 last night. Retail traders collectively turned bearish during the sell-off, while the whales’ positioning barely changed.
The number of tokens held confirms this. Futures open interest was about 344 million tokens yesterday afternoon and 348 million before the flash crash. Positions barely expanded over the entire decline. It wasn’t new shorts that pushed the price down; retail traders were cutting losses and flipping short in the existing market. Funding rates have hovered around zero over the past few periods: the last settled at +0.002%, and the next is forecast to be slightly negative. Shorts haven’t been forced to pay an expensive funding rate.
Technically, the 1-hour close has already pierced the Bollinger lower band at 0.0601, and the RSI14 has fallen to 25.9, entering oversold territory. The EMA12 is at 0.0634, still some distance above the price. ATR is about 4.3%, meaning a single candle can move 0.0025. The Bollinger lower band and this hour’s low of 0.0555 are the next two levels to watch.
The mechanics are simple: the whales haven’t reduced their positions, but retail traders have switched from longs to shorts. Short-term selling pressure is coming from panic selling, not from major players unloading. If the whales start reducing their positions next, the next leg down will be more severe; if the price reclaims the Bollinger Band and retail shorts cover, those shorts could instead become fuel for a rebound.
My take on $MUBARAK is that this drop looks more like panic selling by retail traders pushing the price outside the Bollinger Band than whales distributing. I don’t hold any, and I won’t buy the bounce at this level. I’ll consider the flush close to ending only if the 1-hour candle reclaims 0.0601 and the share of retail long accounts rises above 40%. If 0.0555 gives way, we’ll need to reassess the next support level; the Bollinger Band won’t contain it.
#MUBARAK #DivergenceInPositions