Evening market recap: $BTC spent the entire day ranging between $83,000 and $84,000, sitting at $83,744 before this post (24h +0.69%). The day's high was $84,146 and the low was $82,972. Volatility was squeezed into a straight line—as the whole market waited for tonight's 20:30 CPI release.
Both sides of the leverage trade have taken a hit over the past two days: yesterday it was the longs ( $774 million liquidated across the market, 89% of them long positions); today it was the shorts (of the $32.5 million in BTC liquidations over 24h, 78% were short positions). Market-wide open interest fell to $140 billion (-2.27%), as traders actively reduced leverage ahead of CPI. With both sides flushed out before the data, this is a relatively healthy setup.
Today was a “profit-taking day” for altcoins: $STRK , which was flying high last week, has pulled back about 37% from its peak, and there’s another token unlock tomorrow. TIA and W are also pulling back. Don’t try to catch falling knives at these levels. There are only two exceptions: $OP (Unichain’s migration to OP Stack is a real catalyst) and ZEC (the privacy narrative is still going, +7.8%) are holding up relatively well.
Spot ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for the 10th consecutive trading day—the institutional money is still sitting on the sidelines, unconvinced.
My take: tonight’s CPI report (market expectation: 3.6%; previous: 3.4%) is the dividing line. If the data comes in cool (≤3.5% or core inflation eases), BTC may ride the momentum and test $84,000–$85,000. If it comes in hot (≥3.7% or core month-over-month inflation is ≥0.4%), a retest of $81,000 is likely. Until the data is out, my plan is simple: no bets, wait for direction, and let the first wave of volatility pass before reassessing.
Invalidation levels: a break below $83,000 would signal weakness; losing $82,500 would invalidate today’s rebound structure.
Risk reminder: volatility is highest in the 30 minutes after CPI. If you trade with leverage, don’t open positions at the instant the data drops—slippage and sudden wicks punish fast fingers. I’ll resume my regular signal checks at 22:30.
Are you staying up to watch the data tonight, or sleeping first and checking the results later? Let’s talk in the comments.
#CPI #Bitcoin
Both sides of the leverage trade have taken a hit over the past two days: yesterday it was the longs ( $774 million liquidated across the market, 89% of them long positions); today it was the shorts (of the $32.5 million in BTC liquidations over 24h, 78% were short positions). Market-wide open interest fell to $140 billion (-2.27%), as traders actively reduced leverage ahead of CPI. With both sides flushed out before the data, this is a relatively healthy setup.
Today was a “profit-taking day” for altcoins: $STRK , which was flying high last week, has pulled back about 37% from its peak, and there’s another token unlock tomorrow. TIA and W are also pulling back. Don’t try to catch falling knives at these levels. There are only two exceptions: $OP (Unichain’s migration to OP Stack is a real catalyst) and ZEC (the privacy narrative is still going, +7.8%) are holding up relatively well.
Spot ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for the 10th consecutive trading day—the institutional money is still sitting on the sidelines, unconvinced.
My take: tonight’s CPI report (market expectation: 3.6%; previous: 3.4%) is the dividing line. If the data comes in cool (≤3.5% or core inflation eases), BTC may ride the momentum and test $84,000–$85,000. If it comes in hot (≥3.7% or core month-over-month inflation is ≥0.4%), a retest of $81,000 is likely. Until the data is out, my plan is simple: no bets, wait for direction, and let the first wave of volatility pass before reassessing.
Invalidation levels: a break below $83,000 would signal weakness; losing $82,500 would invalidate today’s rebound structure.
Risk reminder: volatility is highest in the 30 minutes after CPI. If you trade with leverage, don’t open positions at the instant the data drops—slippage and sudden wicks punish fast fingers. I’ll resume my regular signal checks at 22:30.
Are you staying up to watch the data tonight, or sleeping first and checking the results later? Let’s talk in the comments.
#CPI #Bitcoin