Interpreting StablecoinX’s mNAV Changes
After following the ongoing research into StablecoinX over the past few days, it’s not hard to see why its mNAV has been hovering between 0.4x and 0.6x.
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“$USDEB stock is trading at a steep discount”—Are some market participants overstating the size of the discount?
In my earnings analysis yesterday, I concluded that cash flow revenue has no significant impact, and the stock’s valuation still depends on the amount of tokens per share (@Ethena Labs $ENA ).
But how should we interpret StablecoinX’s current mNAV of just 0.45x?
The key reasons:
➤ Different valuation perspectives
Many retail investors look at mNAV simply by comparing the value of ENA tokens with USDE’s market capitalization, which creates the illusion of a “steep discount.”
But after breaking down the sources of StablecoinX’s token holdings over the past few days, you’ll realize that:
“Its tokens were acquired at a discount, and some tokens don’t have a conventional cost basis” (if you missed this, you can catch up by reading my posts from the past few days).
This means that, for its early investors or related parties, 1x was never the benchmark, because they value it based on their own acquisition costs.
➤ Unlocking ≠ being able to sell
Another factor is that the market’s original perceived “catalyst”—the full unlocking of the tokens—has already been largely priced in.
Once the market recognizes the difference between the end of a token lock-up period and actually selling the tokens, it will revalue them based on factors such as liquidity, the price at which the tokens can be sold, and the proportion that can be converted to cash.
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Summary
Looking at historical mNAV fluctuations, I believe regulatory filings still have a significant impact, including both 10-Qs and 8-Ks.
If I had to estimate a potential peak or range for mNAV, I think 0.55x–0.65x is probably the upper limit at this stage.
Breaking through that ceiling would require a powerful re-rating catalyst, which seems unlikely.
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● The above content does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own independent research and make decisions based on their investment objectives and risk tolerance. Please exercise caution when participating in the investment market.
● The attached image is from EthenaDash (red markings added by the author).
#StablecoinX #USDeb #ENA #BStocks
After following the ongoing research into StablecoinX over the past few days, it’s not hard to see why its mNAV has been hovering between 0.4x and 0.6x.
-
“$USDEB stock is trading at a steep discount”—Are some market participants overstating the size of the discount?
In my earnings analysis yesterday, I concluded that cash flow revenue has no significant impact, and the stock’s valuation still depends on the amount of tokens per share (@Ethena Labs $ENA ).
But how should we interpret StablecoinX’s current mNAV of just 0.45x?
The key reasons:
➤ Different valuation perspectives
Many retail investors look at mNAV simply by comparing the value of ENA tokens with USDE’s market capitalization, which creates the illusion of a “steep discount.”
But after breaking down the sources of StablecoinX’s token holdings over the past few days, you’ll realize that:
“Its tokens were acquired at a discount, and some tokens don’t have a conventional cost basis” (if you missed this, you can catch up by reading my posts from the past few days).
This means that, for its early investors or related parties, 1x was never the benchmark, because they value it based on their own acquisition costs.
➤ Unlocking ≠ being able to sell
Another factor is that the market’s original perceived “catalyst”—the full unlocking of the tokens—has already been largely priced in.
Once the market recognizes the difference between the end of a token lock-up period and actually selling the tokens, it will revalue them based on factors such as liquidity, the price at which the tokens can be sold, and the proportion that can be converted to cash.
-
Summary
Looking at historical mNAV fluctuations, I believe regulatory filings still have a significant impact, including both 10-Qs and 8-Ks.
If I had to estimate a potential peak or range for mNAV, I think 0.55x–0.65x is probably the upper limit at this stage.
Breaking through that ceiling would require a powerful re-rating catalyst, which seems unlikely.
-
● The above content does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own independent research and make decisions based on their investment objectives and risk tolerance. Please exercise caution when participating in the investment market.
● The attached image is from EthenaDash (red markings added by the author).
#StablecoinX #USDeb #ENA #BStocks