CPI data is coming out at 8:30 shortly. Let me break down in detail how different readings could affect $BTC's price movement:
1. If CPI is ≥3.9% and core CPI month-over-month comes in at or above 0.4%, expectations of rate hikes will heat up. That's bearish for BTC, and it will fall;
2. If CPI is around 3.7% and core CPI month-over-month is around 0.2%–0.3%, that would be in line with market expectations. BTC will likely continue moving sideways as it is now, or edge slightly upward;
3. If CPI is ≤3.5% and core CPI month-over-month is 0.2% or lower, market expectations of rate hikes will drop sharply. That's bullish for Bitcoin, and it will surge.
My guess is that tonight we'll see the second scenario, but the most important thing is to keep a close eye on core CPI.
Energy prices can keep headline CPI elevated, but if core CPI—which excludes food and energy—hasn't changed, the market won't raise rates.#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
1. If CPI is ≥3.9% and core CPI month-over-month comes in at or above 0.4%, expectations of rate hikes will heat up. That's bearish for BTC, and it will fall;
2. If CPI is around 3.7% and core CPI month-over-month is around 0.2%–0.3%, that would be in line with market expectations. BTC will likely continue moving sideways as it is now, or edge slightly upward;
3. If CPI is ≤3.5% and core CPI month-over-month is 0.2% or lower, market expectations of rate hikes will drop sharply. That's bullish for Bitcoin, and it will surge.
My guess is that tonight we'll see the second scenario, but the most important thing is to keep a close eye on core CPI.
Energy prices can keep headline CPI elevated, but if core CPI—which excludes food and energy—hasn't changed, the market won't raise rates.#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何