Tonight at 20:30, the CPI bombshell drops! Core CPI month over month at 0.2% or 0.3% could make or break a rate hike!
Tonight at 20:30, September CPI data is due. Don’t focus only on headline inflation—the real dividing line is just one figure: core CPI month over month, 0.2% or 0.3%.
First, the forecast:
Headline CPI could rise from 3.4% to 3.6% year over year, with a 0.6% monthly increase—the biggest gain in nearly five months. A rebound in energy prices is the main driver. But that’s not the key figure. Core CPI is expected to come in at 2.5% year over year and 0.2% month over month, slightly below last month’s 0.3%.
Why does it matter?
This is the last inflation report before the Fed’s October 27–28 policy meeting. CME data shows markets are pricing in just a 17% chance of a rate hike. But remember: August core CPI’s 0.3% monthly increase directly paved the way for the first rate hike in more than three years at September’s FOMC meeting, with the probability surging to 70% at the time. Now it’s down to just 17%, with markets betting that this round of tightening will be a one-off rather than the start of further hikes.
Two possible scenarios:
If core CPI holds at 0.2% month over month: The Fed will likely stand pat and push a rate hike to December, giving markets a breather and allowing risk assets to rebound.
If it jumps to 0.3%: Rate-hike expectations will immediately heat up again, putting the October meeting back on edge. The dollar will strengthen, putting pressure on crypto markets.
CICC previously identified 0.3% as the threshold for restarting rate hikes. PPI is also due Thursday, adding to the pressure. Together, the two reports will shape the market’s view of inflation and the Fed’s path.
Xinying’s take:
Don’t bet on a direction before tonight’s data comes out. If core CPI is 0.2%, go with the trend and buy; if it’s 0.3%, switch gears and play defense. Keep your hands steady and wait for the dust to settle. Stay calm!
#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
Tonight at 20:30, September CPI data is due. Don’t focus only on headline inflation—the real dividing line is just one figure: core CPI month over month, 0.2% or 0.3%.
First, the forecast:
Headline CPI could rise from 3.4% to 3.6% year over year, with a 0.6% monthly increase—the biggest gain in nearly five months. A rebound in energy prices is the main driver. But that’s not the key figure. Core CPI is expected to come in at 2.5% year over year and 0.2% month over month, slightly below last month’s 0.3%.
Why does it matter?
This is the last inflation report before the Fed’s October 27–28 policy meeting. CME data shows markets are pricing in just a 17% chance of a rate hike. But remember: August core CPI’s 0.3% monthly increase directly paved the way for the first rate hike in more than three years at September’s FOMC meeting, with the probability surging to 70% at the time. Now it’s down to just 17%, with markets betting that this round of tightening will be a one-off rather than the start of further hikes.
Two possible scenarios:
If core CPI holds at 0.2% month over month: The Fed will likely stand pat and push a rate hike to December, giving markets a breather and allowing risk assets to rebound.
If it jumps to 0.3%: Rate-hike expectations will immediately heat up again, putting the October meeting back on edge. The dollar will strengthen, putting pressure on crypto markets.
CICC previously identified 0.3% as the threshold for restarting rate hikes. PPI is also due Thursday, adding to the pressure. Together, the two reports will shape the market’s view of inflation and the Fed’s path.
Xinying’s take:
Don’t bet on a direction before tonight’s data comes out. If core CPI is 0.2%, go with the trend and buy; if it’s 0.3%, switch gears and play defense. Keep your hands steady and wait for the dust to settle. Stay calm!
#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何