U.S. September CPI will be released tonight at 20:30
Market expectations: Headline CPI +0.6% MoM and 3.6% YoY (previous: 3.4%); core CPI +0.2% MoM and around 2.4%–2.5% YoY. The increase is mainly driven by higher gasoline prices.
My view: Headline CPI will broadly meet expectations, while core CPI is highly likely to come in around 0.2% MoM. The energy shock is already fully priced in, housing continues to cool moderately, and second-round pass-through is limited.
If core CPI does not exceed expectations, it will reinforce expectations that the Fed will stand pat in October and defer further action until December, benefiting bond markets and risk assets.
$BTC #9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
Market expectations: Headline CPI +0.6% MoM and 3.6% YoY (previous: 3.4%); core CPI +0.2% MoM and around 2.4%–2.5% YoY. The increase is mainly driven by higher gasoline prices.
My view: Headline CPI will broadly meet expectations, while core CPI is highly likely to come in around 0.2% MoM. The energy shock is already fully priced in, housing continues to cool moderately, and second-round pass-through is limited.
If core CPI does not exceed expectations, it will reinforce expectations that the Fed will stand pat in October and defer further action until December, benefiting bond markets and risk assets.
$BTC #9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何