#On-chain Metrics Analysis
BTC: LTH/STH Cost Basis Ratio
The LTH realized price represents the average cost basis of coins held for more than 155 days, while the STH realized price represents the average cost basis of coins held for 155 days or less. A rising ratio indicates that long-term holders’ cost basis is catching up with that of short-term holders, and that the distribution of holdings is gradually converging.
0.48 Recovery Phase · Current ratio: 0.6543
LTH cost basis: approximately $48,735; STH cost basis: approximately $74,488—a difference of about $25,753.
The 7-day average is 0.6553 and the 30-day average is 0.6669, indicating a declining trend and slowing convergence.
The most recent move above 0.48 occurred on 2026-02-28, about 227 days ago.
When the ratio is below 0.48, it has historically tended to correspond to deep accumulation during bear markets. A recovery above that level and continued movement toward the cycle peak often occur once cost-basis restructuring is complete and the trend is preparing to reverse. In previous cycles, reaching the peak took approximately 301, 266, and 244 days; the current cycle has lasted about 227 days so far. This is a cycle-monitoring tool, not a standalone buy or sell signal. It should be assessed alongside spot demand, liquidity, and price structure.
$BTC
BTC: LTH/STH Cost Basis Ratio
The LTH realized price represents the average cost basis of coins held for more than 155 days, while the STH realized price represents the average cost basis of coins held for 155 days or less. A rising ratio indicates that long-term holders’ cost basis is catching up with that of short-term holders, and that the distribution of holdings is gradually converging.
0.48 Recovery Phase · Current ratio: 0.6543
LTH cost basis: approximately $48,735; STH cost basis: approximately $74,488—a difference of about $25,753.
The 7-day average is 0.6553 and the 30-day average is 0.6669, indicating a declining trend and slowing convergence.
The most recent move above 0.48 occurred on 2026-02-28, about 227 days ago.
When the ratio is below 0.48, it has historically tended to correspond to deep accumulation during bear markets. A recovery above that level and continued movement toward the cycle peak often occur once cost-basis restructuring is complete and the trend is preparing to reverse. In previous cycles, reaching the peak took approximately 301, 266, and 244 days; the current cycle has lasted about 227 days so far. This is a cycle-monitoring tool, not a standalone buy or sell signal. It should be assessed alongside spot demand, liquidity, and price structure.
$BTC