The market has felt incredibly choppy over the past couple of days. $BTC has been hovering around 83,000, while ETH has just topped 2,500. There’s no clear direction either way, and hardly any altcoins are managing to rally for long. Most gains get wiped out by profit-taking after a couple of days. It’s clear that capital is waiting for a decisive signal.
Put simply, everyone is focused on tonight’s CPI release at 8:30, especially the core month-over-month figure, which will directly shape the market’s momentum over the next couple of weeks. ETFs saw outflows throughout last week, and a sell-off in South Korean stocks dragged down risk assets. The market has just seen more than $800 million in leveraged positions liquidated, so most of the weak hands have already been shaken out. At this point, most remaining positions are essentially bets on the data.
Don’t just focus on BTC. Its correlation with the Nasdaq has climbed back to 40%, and it’s now moving entirely with the direction of U.S. Treasury yields. Think about it: if core CPI comes in at 0.3%, the October rate-hike odds, currently at 17%, could jump, and BTC would likely test the $80,000 support first, while altcoins would take a beating across the board. But if we get a surprisingly dovish reading of 0.2% or lower, all the bullish momentum that’s been building up could break loose at once, and a sharp short-term rally wouldn’t be surprising.
Here’s a practical suggestion: don’t rush to go all in or take a heavily leveraged position betting on either outcome. Just hold your spot positions, and if you trade futures, avoid using high leverage before the data comes out tonight. Waiting for the data and then trading in the direction it points is much safer than trying to guess in advance. Capital across the market is waiting for the shoe to drop, so there’s no need to put yourself in a vulnerable position at a moment like this. #9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
Put simply, everyone is focused on tonight’s CPI release at 8:30, especially the core month-over-month figure, which will directly shape the market’s momentum over the next couple of weeks. ETFs saw outflows throughout last week, and a sell-off in South Korean stocks dragged down risk assets. The market has just seen more than $800 million in leveraged positions liquidated, so most of the weak hands have already been shaken out. At this point, most remaining positions are essentially bets on the data.
Don’t just focus on BTC. Its correlation with the Nasdaq has climbed back to 40%, and it’s now moving entirely with the direction of U.S. Treasury yields. Think about it: if core CPI comes in at 0.3%, the October rate-hike odds, currently at 17%, could jump, and BTC would likely test the $80,000 support first, while altcoins would take a beating across the board. But if we get a surprisingly dovish reading of 0.2% or lower, all the bullish momentum that’s been building up could break loose at once, and a sharp short-term rally wouldn’t be surprising.
Here’s a practical suggestion: don’t rush to go all in or take a heavily leveraged position betting on either outcome. Just hold your spot positions, and if you trade futures, avoid using high leverage before the data comes out tonight. Waiting for the data and then trading in the direction it points is much safer than trying to guess in advance. Capital across the market is waiting for the shoe to drop, so there’s no need to put yourself in a vulnerable position at a moment like this. #9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何