The sentiment is there, and the bottom is there too. Trading is about having the courage to buy the dip and make decisions based on your own convictions. That’s all there is to it…
Although I don’t know whether buying the dip now really means we’ve hit the bottom, you still have to make a decision when it’s time to make one. Otherwise, I feel like I’d just be talking with the benefit of hindsight, and I don’t want to do that.
I’m sure those who were holding positions over the past few days haven’t had an easy time. I’ve actually been doing a little better, since I took profits on some of my U.S. stock positions last time. Recently, apart from NBIS, I’ve been mostly out of the market, so I’ve added a little more.
As for the storage sector over the past few days, it feels like we’ve seen a repeat of the downturn that lasted through July a few years ago. Korean stocks are acting up again, and combined with Musk’s comments and some news about China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies, storage stocks got hit with another round of selling.
Based on my track record with Micron, where I’ve been right 100% of the time—see this post: https://t.co/Ssb99SJOH4—Micron tends to follow this kind of pattern. When everyone’s bullish, it falls; when nobody’s paying attention, it rises. So I added a tiny bit.
Next, I’d like to talk about my overall market analysis, particularly the possibility of an interest rate hike.
For the September rate decision, I was looking to swing trade on the basis that tech stocks would come under pressure whether or not rates were raised. So at the time I told everyone, “If it falls, just buy, right?” Either way, the decision was going to be a good thing once it was announced.
Then there was the nonfarm payroll data from a little while ago, which came out in October. I was saying as early as September 26 that the data was fake, as shown in this post: https://t.co/mFPzbVMTr8. Looking back now, we’re realizing that perhaps raising rates really was the best choice.
It would have looked pretty bad if the Fed chair had refused to raise rates in their first decision. So I’d raise them first; after all, once the hike is announced, it’s a case of “the uncertainty is behind us,” which is good for the market.
What happens next can be managed through the data, just like with the last nonfarm payroll report.
Now I’ll make another prediction about how things might play out this time.
The CPI data will probably come in around expectations, or perhaps below them. You can check our major events calendar in the upper-right corner of our website.
If that happens, the market will rebound immediately. If the data comes in below expectations, the odds of a rate hike in October will drop right away. Would it be good or bad if rates aren’t raised in October?
I think it would be good. Rates were already raised in September. If they raise them again in October, wouldn’t that mean the start of a rate-hiking cycle? And once that starts, what would you make of the odds of a hike in December? Right?
If rates aren’t raised in October, expectations will come down. Then they can work things around in November and avoid a hike in December, safely getting through 2026. I think that’s also the script America is hoping for.
And Trump is gearing up for the midterm elections on November 3. If you’re heading into an election, how are you going to explain a rate-hiking cycle to your voters?
So the best-case scenario is for CPI to come in below expectations and the market to rebound immediately. There’s also one more thing to keep an eye on: Anthropic Investor Day is taking place on October 14, right? If they release some more positive news, that should clear away most of the negative sentiment.
The market will move into the “keep the music playing and keep dancing” phase.
On top of that, we have earnings season coming up. If ＄ASML and ＄TSM report earnings above expectations, that should pretty much set the direction for what comes next.
Of course, everything above is just my own subjective prediction and judgment.
So my decision is to go in and buy the dip. If I get caught in a drawdown, I’ll just add some more.
That’s my take and my view of the market in these two posts. Take a look and make up your own mind.
That’s all…
Although I don’t know whether buying the dip now really means we’ve hit the bottom, you still have to make a decision when it’s time to make one. Otherwise, I feel like I’d just be talking with the benefit of hindsight, and I don’t want to do that.
I’m sure those who were holding positions over the past few days haven’t had an easy time. I’ve actually been doing a little better, since I took profits on some of my U.S. stock positions last time. Recently, apart from NBIS, I’ve been mostly out of the market, so I’ve added a little more.
As for the storage sector over the past few days, it feels like we’ve seen a repeat of the downturn that lasted through July a few years ago. Korean stocks are acting up again, and combined with Musk’s comments and some news about China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies, storage stocks got hit with another round of selling.
Based on my track record with Micron, where I’ve been right 100% of the time—see this post: https://t.co/Ssb99SJOH4—Micron tends to follow this kind of pattern. When everyone’s bullish, it falls; when nobody’s paying attention, it rises. So I added a tiny bit.
Next, I’d like to talk about my overall market analysis, particularly the possibility of an interest rate hike.
For the September rate decision, I was looking to swing trade on the basis that tech stocks would come under pressure whether or not rates were raised. So at the time I told everyone, “If it falls, just buy, right?” Either way, the decision was going to be a good thing once it was announced.
Then there was the nonfarm payroll data from a little while ago, which came out in October. I was saying as early as September 26 that the data was fake, as shown in this post: https://t.co/mFPzbVMTr8. Looking back now, we’re realizing that perhaps raising rates really was the best choice.
It would have looked pretty bad if the Fed chair had refused to raise rates in their first decision. So I’d raise them first; after all, once the hike is announced, it’s a case of “the uncertainty is behind us,” which is good for the market.
What happens next can be managed through the data, just like with the last nonfarm payroll report.
Now I’ll make another prediction about how things might play out this time.
The CPI data will probably come in around expectations, or perhaps below them. You can check our major events calendar in the upper-right corner of our website.
If that happens, the market will rebound immediately. If the data comes in below expectations, the odds of a rate hike in October will drop right away. Would it be good or bad if rates aren’t raised in October?
I think it would be good. Rates were already raised in September. If they raise them again in October, wouldn’t that mean the start of a rate-hiking cycle? And once that starts, what would you make of the odds of a hike in December? Right?
If rates aren’t raised in October, expectations will come down. Then they can work things around in November and avoid a hike in December, safely getting through 2026. I think that’s also the script America is hoping for.
And Trump is gearing up for the midterm elections on November 3. If you’re heading into an election, how are you going to explain a rate-hiking cycle to your voters?
So the best-case scenario is for CPI to come in below expectations and the market to rebound immediately. There’s also one more thing to keep an eye on: Anthropic Investor Day is taking place on October 14, right? If they release some more positive news, that should clear away most of the negative sentiment.
The market will move into the “keep the music playing and keep dancing” phase.
On top of that, we have earnings season coming up. If ＄ASML and ＄TSM report earnings above expectations, that should pretty much set the direction for what comes next.
Of course, everything above is just my own subjective prediction and judgment.
So my decision is to go in and buy the dip. If I get caught in a drawdown, I’ll just add some more.
That’s my take and my view of the market in these two posts. Take a look and make up your own mind.
That’s all…