#9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何 Oil at 105: Will CPI jump to 3.6%?
#Where will oil and US Treasuries head as September CPI is released?
The US September CPI will be released on October 14 at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time. Markets expect the headline rate to come in at 3.6% year over year, up from 3.4% in August, while core CPI is expected to be between 2.4% and 2.5%. In short, oil is behind most of the sharp rise in headline inflation: Brent crude is up more than 70% this year and closed at $106.65 on Monday.
What matters more to me is the monthly change in core CPI, which is expected to be 0.2%. Markets are probably prepared for a rise in headline inflation, but if core CPI comes in at 0.3%, 10-year US Treasury yields could well continue climbing from around 5.19%, and calls for further rate hikes at the meeting later this month could resurface.
Oil prices, meanwhile, don’t care much about CPI; they’re more affected by news from the Middle East and Russian diesel.
My plan is to reduce my positions before the data release, not chase $BTC now, and wait for the core CPI figures.
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#Where will oil and US Treasuries head as September CPI is released?
The US September CPI will be released on October 14 at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time. Markets expect the headline rate to come in at 3.6% year over year, up from 3.4% in August, while core CPI is expected to be between 2.4% and 2.5%. In short, oil is behind most of the sharp rise in headline inflation: Brent crude is up more than 70% this year and closed at $106.65 on Monday.
What matters more to me is the monthly change in core CPI, which is expected to be 0.2%. Markets are probably prepared for a rise in headline inflation, but if core CPI comes in at 0.3%, 10-year US Treasury yields could well continue climbing from around 5.19%, and calls for further rate hikes at the meeting later this month could resurface.
Oil prices, meanwhile, don’t care much about CPI; they’re more affected by news from the Middle East and Russian diesel.
My plan is to reduce my positions before the data release, not chase $BTC now, and wait for the core CPI figures.
Please follow