#On-chain Metrics Analysis
BTC: Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Model (Four-Year Nine-Color Band)
Using the Short-Term Holder Realized Price as the midpoint, Line1–Line9 are generated based on the four-year volatility standard deviation; Line7 corresponds to +1σ.
Line7 Upside Breakout Status
Touched Line7 · Awaiting daily close confirmation
Current price is approximately $83,622; the Line5 cost-basis midpoint is approximately $74,415,
and Line7 (+1σ) is approximately $83,016, or +0.73% relative to the current price.
The macro breakout in this cycle began around 2026-08-21, approximately 53 days ago. There have been 0 consecutive confirmed daily closes.
Touching Line7 indicates that short-term buying power is moving out of the cost-concentration zone. It is evidence of a right-side trend, but does not confirm a bull market or constitute a buy signal on its own. If the price quickly falls back below Line7, treat it as a weakening false-breakout signal, and continue to validate it against spot demand, liquidity, and long-term holder behavior.
$BTC
BTC: Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Model (Four-Year Nine-Color Band)
Using the Short-Term Holder Realized Price as the midpoint, Line1–Line9 are generated based on the four-year volatility standard deviation; Line7 corresponds to +1σ.
Line7 Upside Breakout Status
Touched Line7 · Awaiting daily close confirmation
Current price is approximately $83,622; the Line5 cost-basis midpoint is approximately $74,415,
and Line7 (+1σ) is approximately $83,016, or +0.73% relative to the current price.
The macro breakout in this cycle began around 2026-08-21, approximately 53 days ago. There have been 0 consecutive confirmed daily closes.
Touching Line7 indicates that short-term buying power is moving out of the cost-concentration zone. It is evidence of a right-side trend, but does not confirm a bull market or constitute a buy signal on its own. If the price quickly falls back below Line7, treat it as a weakening false-breakout signal, and continue to validate it against spot demand, liquidity, and long-term holder behavior.
$BTC