#On-Chain Metrics Analysis
BTC: <3-Month Realized Cap HODL Waves
This metric measures the cost-weighted share of realized capitalization represented by coins last moved less than 3 months ago, making it a closer reflection of the economic weight controlled by new capital.
New Capital and Hot Money Phases
Accumulation Zone · Current public-source reading: approximately 14.60%
7-day change: approximately +0.30 pct; trending upward.
Still approximately 24.40 pct below the 39% alert threshold,
and approximately 30.40 pct below the 45% overheated threshold.
When the share of hot money is low, the market tends to be in an accumulation phase. Once it enters the 39%–45% range, the risk of a cyclical top increases. Public sources and reference charts use different methodologies, so their figures should not be combined. The market remains in the accumulation zone, and incremental capital is not yet overheated. Continue tracking the share’s trajectory and assess it alongside spot demand and price structure.
$BTC
BTC: <3-Month Realized Cap HODL Waves
This metric measures the cost-weighted share of realized capitalization represented by coins last moved less than 3 months ago, making it a closer reflection of the economic weight controlled by new capital.
New Capital and Hot Money Phases
Accumulation Zone · Current public-source reading: approximately 14.60%
7-day change: approximately +0.30 pct; trending upward.
Still approximately 24.40 pct below the 39% alert threshold,
and approximately 30.40 pct below the 45% overheated threshold.
When the share of hot money is low, the market tends to be in an accumulation phase. Once it enters the 39%–45% range, the risk of a cyclical top increases. Public sources and reference charts use different methodologies, so their figures should not be combined. The market remains in the accumulation zone, and incremental capital is not yet overheated. Continue tracking the share’s trajectory and assess it alongside spot demand and price structure.
$BTC