🔥 CME: The probability of an October rate hike is below 20%. This CPI report will determine which way the balance tips.
🔥Time: 19:30, Wednesday, October 14, 2026, Vietnam time
📊 Gasoline prices have risen sharply, and the market forecasts month-over-month inflation to jump from +0.4% in August to +0.5%—which is already expected. The real wildcard is whether it comes in above forecast.
📌 Two scenarios: month-over-month ≥ +0.6% means prices are rising faster than expected, the USD strengthens, and US stocks, gold, and $BTC could fall; ≤ +0.4% means interest-rate hike risks ease further, and BTC could rise.
📌 Fed's September meeting minutes: Many officials worried that the longer energy prices remain elevated, the more likely they are to spread into broader price pressures. Hot data would be exactly that scenario.
📌 Fed officials lean hawkish but aren't in a hurry: Musalem says rates need to rise further to bring inflation down, while Vice Chair Jefferson thinks the next move needn't be rushed.
⚠️ Markets are highly volatile around the time of the announcement. This content is for reference only and is not investment advice.