📊 The IMF raised its growth forecast today—and casually named AI its biggest risk
Bangkok. The IMF and World Bank annual meetings opened on October 12, with Thailand hosting for the first time since 1991. This morning, the IMF released its World Economic Outlook, raising global growth for this year from July’s 3.0% to 3.1%, and forecasting 3.4% for next year. The forecast for 2025 is 3.5%.
AI gets the credit. The report says advanced economies have weathered the war-driven surge in energy prices thanks to investment in AI infrastructure. Chief economist Silvana Tenreyro put it more bluntly: resilience is “approaching its limits.”
The diverging figures are striking. Just 32 economies now account for 95% of global growth, compared with 54 in April. Saudi Arabia’s GDP forecast for this year was slashed from July’s +1.7% to -3.3%—a five-point cut. Iraq: -16%; Kuwait: -16.7%; Qatar: -15.6%. On the other side, Taiwan, riding the chip supply chain, is at +10.7%; South Korea, 3.3%; India, 7.0%.
Inflation hasn’t eased. It’s 4.7% this year; next year’s forecast was revised from 3.9% to 4.1%. Refined-product prices are 70% to 95% above prewar levels. That’s how expensive things are. Oil is above $100 a barrel, and global oil reserves are being drawn down by 2.7 million barrels a day. The IMF now expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen in March next year, with a return to prewar conditions not expected until October.
The debt warning is the starkest. Global public debt is nearing its highest level since World War II and is heading above 100% of GDP. U.S., German, and Japanese 10-year government bond yields are at their highest levels since 2007, 2009, and 1996, respectively. The U.S. 10-year yield is 5.24% today, with a 52-week high of 5.364%. The books don’t balance.
The IMF’s take on crypto came in another report released the same day.
On October 8, the IMF previewed Chapter 3 of its Global Financial Stability Report in Seoul, titled “The Rise of Tokenization: New Efficiencies and New Vulnerabilities.” Chapter 1 was published this morning. The figures: publicly issued tokenized real-world assets, excluding stablecoins and repurchase agreements, totaled about $65 billion in July. Fixed income accounted for $48 billion ($30.4 billion in credit products and about $17.5 billion in money market funds), while tokenized equities came to just $2.3 billion. Global equity market capitalization is $151.9 trillion. Daily average tokenized repo volume is $300 billion to $350 billion; the U.S. repo market does $13 trillion a day.
Realized volatility in tokenized stocks is about 1.5 times that of traditional markets, while liquidity on decentralized exchanges continues to deteriorate. More than half of U.S. market trading takes place off-exchange, and about 80% of orders are for less than a full share.
The warning about settlement assets is the strongest. Settling with private deposit tokens or stablecoins means adding contagion and concentration risks on top of the issuer’s credit and liquidity risks. The IMF’s recommendation is to use central bank money. This is its third warning about tokenization this year. The third.
Prices. As I write this, four BTC price feeds show $83,256 to $83,359, down about 0.3% over 24 hours. ETH is at $2,506 to $2,510, down about 1.5%. Spot gold is around $4,180.
Growth is being propped up by AI, debt needs fiscal rebuilding, and crypto’s most coveted prize—“going mainstream”—still comes in at less than three ten-thousandths by this measure. Thailand is set to promote its “Bangkok Blueprint” anti-scam framework tomorrow. During the meetings, what central banks say about stablecoin settlements will be more worth listening to than the forecast figures.
$BTC $ETH
#中本聪国际社区Baoluo币商资本 #宏观经济 #IMF
Bangkok. The IMF and World Bank annual meetings opened on October 12, with Thailand hosting for the first time since 1991. This morning, the IMF released its World Economic Outlook, raising global growth for this year from July’s 3.0% to 3.1%, and forecasting 3.4% for next year. The forecast for 2025 is 3.5%.
AI gets the credit. The report says advanced economies have weathered the war-driven surge in energy prices thanks to investment in AI infrastructure. Chief economist Silvana Tenreyro put it more bluntly: resilience is “approaching its limits.”
The diverging figures are striking. Just 32 economies now account for 95% of global growth, compared with 54 in April. Saudi Arabia’s GDP forecast for this year was slashed from July’s +1.7% to -3.3%—a five-point cut. Iraq: -16%; Kuwait: -16.7%; Qatar: -15.6%. On the other side, Taiwan, riding the chip supply chain, is at +10.7%; South Korea, 3.3%; India, 7.0%.
Inflation hasn’t eased. It’s 4.7% this year; next year’s forecast was revised from 3.9% to 4.1%. Refined-product prices are 70% to 95% above prewar levels. That’s how expensive things are. Oil is above $100 a barrel, and global oil reserves are being drawn down by 2.7 million barrels a day. The IMF now expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen in March next year, with a return to prewar conditions not expected until October.
The debt warning is the starkest. Global public debt is nearing its highest level since World War II and is heading above 100% of GDP. U.S., German, and Japanese 10-year government bond yields are at their highest levels since 2007, 2009, and 1996, respectively. The U.S. 10-year yield is 5.24% today, with a 52-week high of 5.364%. The books don’t balance.
The IMF’s take on crypto came in another report released the same day.
On October 8, the IMF previewed Chapter 3 of its Global Financial Stability Report in Seoul, titled “The Rise of Tokenization: New Efficiencies and New Vulnerabilities.” Chapter 1 was published this morning. The figures: publicly issued tokenized real-world assets, excluding stablecoins and repurchase agreements, totaled about $65 billion in July. Fixed income accounted for $48 billion ($30.4 billion in credit products and about $17.5 billion in money market funds), while tokenized equities came to just $2.3 billion. Global equity market capitalization is $151.9 trillion. Daily average tokenized repo volume is $300 billion to $350 billion; the U.S. repo market does $13 trillion a day.
Realized volatility in tokenized stocks is about 1.5 times that of traditional markets, while liquidity on decentralized exchanges continues to deteriorate. More than half of U.S. market trading takes place off-exchange, and about 80% of orders are for less than a full share.
The warning about settlement assets is the strongest. Settling with private deposit tokens or stablecoins means adding contagion and concentration risks on top of the issuer’s credit and liquidity risks. The IMF’s recommendation is to use central bank money. This is its third warning about tokenization this year. The third.
Prices. As I write this, four BTC price feeds show $83,256 to $83,359, down about 0.3% over 24 hours. ETH is at $2,506 to $2,510, down about 1.5%. Spot gold is around $4,180.
Growth is being propped up by AI, debt needs fiscal rebuilding, and crypto’s most coveted prize—“going mainstream”—still comes in at less than three ten-thousandths by this measure. Thailand is set to promote its “Bangkok Blueprint” anti-scam framework tomorrow. During the meetings, what central banks say about stablecoin settlements will be more worth listening to than the forecast figures.
$BTC $ETH
#中本聪国际社区Baoluo币商资本 #宏观经济 #IMF