This morning, $BTC drove Bitcoin below 81,000 with a single sharp plunge, and we almost saw it start with a 7 again. Nearly $500 million was liquidated across the market in 24 hours, with longs accounting for over 83%. I wonder if Big Brother Maji got precisely liquidated again. It bounced straight back in a V after the dump, and now it’s almost back to 83,000. On the candlestick chart, MA7 has turned up and crossed above MA25, so there are definite signs the short-term decline may be stopping—but the shadow cast by that wick won’t fade anytime soon.
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has surged to 5.70%, its highest level since 2002, while the 10-year yield has also hit 5.35%, a 24-year high. With risk-free Treasuries paying over 5%, who’d still want to put their money into highly volatile assets? On top of that, oil has climbed above $110, stoking inflation expectations again. Cleveland Fed President Hammack struck a hawkish tone this morning, saying rates need to keep rising to bring inflation back down to 2%. Money is getting more expensive, so risk assets need to be revalued. BTC is now moving in tandem with the Nasdaq—don’t expect it to buck the trend.
Altcoins are where the real bloodbath is. BOME is down 30%, BLUR 29%, STRK 28%, and CKB 22%. BTC falls 3%; altcoins fall 30%. Altcoins have higher leverage and thinner liquidity, so when BTC so much as sneezes, they end up straight in the ICU. Funding rates have turned negative, which suggests longs are still being flushed out. Even if there’s a short-term rebound, altcoins will probably struggle to keep up.
This isn’t the time to buy the dip, but it’s not the time to panic-sell either. If you’re heavily positioned, use this V-shaped rebound to reduce some leverage—don’t sit on high leverage and wait for the next sharp drop. If you want to buy spot, consider scaling in on BTC if it retests around 81,500. Stay away from altcoins for now—especially those down more than 30%. That suggests their leverage hasn’t been fully flushed out, and trying to catch a falling knife will probably leave you with a hand covered in blood.
Keep an eye on CPI and expectations for a December Fed rate hike. The probability of a hike in December is now above 80%. Until that uncertainty is resolved, the potential height of any rebound remains questionable. Staying alive matters more than making money. Wait for the wind to change. #比特币重回8.4万美元
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has surged to 5.70%, its highest level since 2002, while the 10-year yield has also hit 5.35%, a 24-year high. With risk-free Treasuries paying over 5%, who’d still want to put their money into highly volatile assets? On top of that, oil has climbed above $110, stoking inflation expectations again. Cleveland Fed President Hammack struck a hawkish tone this morning, saying rates need to keep rising to bring inflation back down to 2%. Money is getting more expensive, so risk assets need to be revalued. BTC is now moving in tandem with the Nasdaq—don’t expect it to buck the trend.
Altcoins are where the real bloodbath is. BOME is down 30%, BLUR 29%, STRK 28%, and CKB 22%. BTC falls 3%; altcoins fall 30%. Altcoins have higher leverage and thinner liquidity, so when BTC so much as sneezes, they end up straight in the ICU. Funding rates have turned negative, which suggests longs are still being flushed out. Even if there’s a short-term rebound, altcoins will probably struggle to keep up.
This isn’t the time to buy the dip, but it’s not the time to panic-sell either. If you’re heavily positioned, use this V-shaped rebound to reduce some leverage—don’t sit on high leverage and wait for the next sharp drop. If you want to buy spot, consider scaling in on BTC if it retests around 81,500. Stay away from altcoins for now—especially those down more than 30%. That suggests their leverage hasn’t been fully flushed out, and trying to catch a falling knife will probably leave you with a hand covered in blood.
Keep an eye on CPI and expectations for a December Fed rate hike. The probability of a hike in December is now above 80%. Until that uncertainty is resolved, the potential height of any rebound remains questionable. Staying alive matters more than making money. Wait for the wind to change. #比特币重回8.4万美元