$BLUR At 4 a.m., a single bearish candle plunged from 0.018 to 0.0152—a 15.6% drop in one hour, with the whole candle down 33% over 24 hours. Normally, a waterfall like this should wipe out longs and bring open interest down with them. But the opposite happened: contract open interest surged from 112 million tokens to 282 million, increasing one and a half times in four hours, while notional value rose from about 2.02 million U to 3.87 million U.
It’s also clear who was adding positions. At 4 o’clock, large traders’ long positions accounted for 67.2%; by 5 o’clock, that figure had plunged to 53.2%, a 14-point drop in one hour. The share of retail accounts holding longs fell from 62.8% to 54.9%. Price fell while positions grew, with both sides shifting toward shorts—the bulk of the additional 170 million tokens in positions were short positions, not longs stubbornly buying the dip.
The funding rate is even more costly. BLUR settles every 4 hours, and at 08:00 the rate plunged to -0.825%, meaning shorts pay 0.8 percentage points per funding interval. At this pace, they’ll pay nearly 5% a day; the current predicted funding rate is still -0.22%. Shorts have already driven the price down, but they’re still paying to hold their positions.
The mechanism is simple: the waterfall draws shorts in. Open interest rises instead of falling, which shows that the long positions being flushed out were quickly replaced by new shorts. As long as the price moves sideways instead of breaking down further, these shorts will have to keep paying funding. If they start covering, their buy orders will fuel a rebound.
Technically, the 1-hour RSI is down to just 7.4, the price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band at 0.0125, EMA12 is at 0.0151, and ATR is about 0.00061. Short-term oversold conditions remain, but what really determines the next move is whether open interest starts to unwind—not what the RSI says on its own. There are just two key levels: 0.0126 below, today’s low, and 0.0151 above, the moving-average retest level.
My take: this move looks more like shorts piling in on the waterfall than the end of a long liquidation. A break below 0.0126 would mean the shorts aren’t done yet. If open interest falls from 280 million and price can reclaim 0.0151, those shorts paying funding could become fuel for a rebound. I don’t hold any BLUR, and I won’t touch it unless it gets back above 0.015.
#BLUR #合约持仓
It’s also clear who was adding positions. At 4 o’clock, large traders’ long positions accounted for 67.2%; by 5 o’clock, that figure had plunged to 53.2%, a 14-point drop in one hour. The share of retail accounts holding longs fell from 62.8% to 54.9%. Price fell while positions grew, with both sides shifting toward shorts—the bulk of the additional 170 million tokens in positions were short positions, not longs stubbornly buying the dip.
The funding rate is even more costly. BLUR settles every 4 hours, and at 08:00 the rate plunged to -0.825%, meaning shorts pay 0.8 percentage points per funding interval. At this pace, they’ll pay nearly 5% a day; the current predicted funding rate is still -0.22%. Shorts have already driven the price down, but they’re still paying to hold their positions.
The mechanism is simple: the waterfall draws shorts in. Open interest rises instead of falling, which shows that the long positions being flushed out were quickly replaced by new shorts. As long as the price moves sideways instead of breaking down further, these shorts will have to keep paying funding. If they start covering, their buy orders will fuel a rebound.
Technically, the 1-hour RSI is down to just 7.4, the price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band at 0.0125, EMA12 is at 0.0151, and ATR is about 0.00061. Short-term oversold conditions remain, but what really determines the next move is whether open interest starts to unwind—not what the RSI says on its own. There are just two key levels: 0.0126 below, today’s low, and 0.0151 above, the moving-average retest level.
My take: this move looks more like shorts piling in on the waterfall than the end of a long liquidation. A break below 0.0126 would mean the shorts aren’t done yet. If open interest falls from 280 million and price can reclaim 0.0151, those shorts paying funding could become fuel for a rebound. I don’t hold any BLUR, and I won’t touch it unless it gets back above 0.015.
#BLUR #合约持仓