Bitcoin (BTC) gave back early-week gains into Monday’s Wall Street open as doubts compounded over a Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire.”
Key points:
Bitcoin reached $84,250 before falling 2.2% amid market nerves over oil supplies and the Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire.”
Analysis saw too much “risk premium” priced in to oil markets in the face of improving shipping volumes.
BTC options traders positioned “defensively” while keeping $90,000 and above on the table.
Bitcoin pressured as Brent crude oil rises above $107
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $84,254 on Bitstamp, its highest level since Wednesday, before dropping up to 2.2%.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The retreat came as Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of continuing to target energy infrastructure despite US president Donald Trump announcing a moratorium on such strikes. Elsewhere, Iran reported that an oil tanker had been hit and was ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices reacted sharply, with WTI crude spiking past $94 per barrel and Brent crude reaching $107.25 — its highest since Sept. 16.
CFDs on Brent crude oil four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The increases come with markets already on edge ahead of key US inflation data in the form of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), due out on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. As Cointelegraph reported, CPI has proven particularly sensitive to rising oil prices.
Commenting, Robin Brooks, former chief FX strategist at Goldman Sachs, argued that oil markets had priced in “too much risk premium,” pointing to improving Hormuz transit volumes.
“Oil volumes out of the Persian Gulf are around 13 mb/d compared to a high of 16.5 mb/d a few weeks ago. This is still way better than the height of the war in March and April, but oil prices are back to their highs,” he noted in a blog post on the day.
BTC bid support seeks to protect $82,000
Looking ahead to possible BTC price targets, trading company QCP Capital reported duality in Bitcoin options markets, with “defensive” positioning combined with traders considering an upside breakout to still be possible.
“Implied volatility has held firm even as spot settled back into the range, while risk reversals show a less pronounced premium for puts than usual. Read together, the market looks less defensively positioned but still priced for a possible breakout,” it summarized in its latest analysis.
“A clean move above $87k would bring $94k into focus.”
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged $83,400 as local resistance on the day, with that level mirroring the area around $77,000 from mid-August through Sept. 21, when BTC/USD broke higher.
BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com
Data from CoinGlass showed ask liquidity clustered around $84,500 on exchanges, with the total at that level circling $180 million. Bids were building around $82,000 at the time of writing, with spot price trending toward that level.
BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass