$BTC The daily and weekly candles have moved back above $83,000, with the price returning to the $83,000–$85,000 trading range. After breaking above the 50-week moving average and making a higher high, this round of testing support only dipped to $80,000 before quickly bouncing back. With $83,000 serving as a key horizontal support level, as long as weekly candles continue to close above it, the broader market is still consolidating above support rather than undergoing a trend reversal. The latest average cost basis for short-term holders has now risen to $74,300, so a pullback into the $70,000s is far from certain.
Last week’s brief retest, a drop of less than 5%, liquidated more than $1 billion in highly leveraged long positions within 24 hours—the largest single-day long liquidation event since the crash triggered by MicroStrategy selling. The pullback happened just as market sentiment had broadly turned bullish and traders were chasing prices with leverage. Combined with news circulating that the U.S. government had transferred Bitcoin to Bitfinex, the typical bull-market pattern of a sharp drop flushing out leverage was unmistakable.
On-chain data and exchange order books show that retail holders with fewer than 10 coins reduced their positions and exited during the decline, while large buy orders from holders of 10–100 coins and those with 100 or more continued to absorb supply after the sharp drop. If the market now forms an upward structure and reaches the low $90,000s, the remaining spot buy orders will move directly up to the $83,000–$85,000 range. If price later briefly breaks below $85,000 and then reclaims it, that would be a clear signal to add 5% to a large-scale long position. After that, the market will most likely consolidate at the next step up through year-end.
Once a surge in volume confirms a cyclical shift, after a break above the 50-week moving average, the risk of staying out and missing the move is far greater than the risk of holding through volatility. The cold-wallet theft reported last week has caused cumulative losses of nearly $100 million so far, and more than $50 million remains in the hacker’s address. The hardware supply chain being tampered with shows that buying is only the first step. During the repeated shakeouts at the start of a bull market, the key is to watch the weekly close and structural confirmation at $83,000, avoid being shaken out by panic over short-term pullbacks, and ensure your assets are thoroughly secured.
Last week’s brief retest, a drop of less than 5%, liquidated more than $1 billion in highly leveraged long positions within 24 hours—the largest single-day long liquidation event since the crash triggered by MicroStrategy selling. The pullback happened just as market sentiment had broadly turned bullish and traders were chasing prices with leverage. Combined with news circulating that the U.S. government had transferred Bitcoin to Bitfinex, the typical bull-market pattern of a sharp drop flushing out leverage was unmistakable.
On-chain data and exchange order books show that retail holders with fewer than 10 coins reduced their positions and exited during the decline, while large buy orders from holders of 10–100 coins and those with 100 or more continued to absorb supply after the sharp drop. If the market now forms an upward structure and reaches the low $90,000s, the remaining spot buy orders will move directly up to the $83,000–$85,000 range. If price later briefly breaks below $85,000 and then reclaims it, that would be a clear signal to add 5% to a large-scale long position. After that, the market will most likely consolidate at the next step up through year-end.
Once a surge in volume confirms a cyclical shift, after a break above the 50-week moving average, the risk of staying out and missing the move is far greater than the risk of holding through volatility. The cold-wallet theft reported last week has caused cumulative losses of nearly $100 million so far, and more than $50 million remains in the hacker’s address. The hardware supply chain being tampered with shows that buying is only the first step. During the repeated shakeouts at the start of a bull market, the key is to watch the weekly close and structural confirmation at $83,000, avoid being shaken out by panic over short-term pullbacks, and ensure your assets are thoroughly secured.