On October 12, BTC is hovering around 83,000–84,000, and the most important number of the week is still to come.
On October 14, September CPI will be released.
Bitfinex’s analysis is clear: if monthly core CPI comes in at 0.2% or lower, rate-hike expectations will continue to cool, bond yields will fall, and BTC could break above 84,500 and head toward 86,500. If core CPI is 0.3% or higher, rate-hike expectations could heat up again, and BTC may continue moving sideways between 81,300 and 84,500—or even fall further.
A 0.1-percentage-point difference could determine the direction of the market this week.
First, let’s look at the market consensus. The annual rate for September CPI is forecast at 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August. This increase is mainly driven by oil prices: Brent crude is already above $105, and higher energy prices directly push up the annual CPI figure. But the monthly trend in core CPI (which excludes energy and food) is a cleaner signal. Core CPI rose 0.2% month over month in August; if it holds at 0.2% in September, that would indicate that non-energy inflation is still easing, giving the Fed reason to pause.
One factor that makes me lean toward 0.2%: PCE data—the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—came in at 0.2% last month, below expectations. PCE and CPI are correlated, so if PCE is cooling, core CPI is also unlikely to come in too hot.
One factor that makes me think there’s a risk of 0.3%: housing costs (Shelter) make up nearly a third of CPI, and they’ve been easing more slowly than the market expected. There’s a decent chance this component will remain elevated in September.
Taken together, both 0.2% and 0.3% are realistic scenarios—not a one-way bet.
Another figure worth noting: ETF investors’ average cost basis is about $84,340, roughly $1,500 above the current price. That means ETF buyers are currently sitting on paper losses. If the price rebounds toward $84,340, some of them may close their positions to break even, creating natural resistance. Bitfinex has explicitly identified this price as a “key level for confirming a breakout.”
Warsh’s speech on October 16 is the second signal window to watch after CPI.
Are you betting on CPI coming in at 0.2% or 0.3%? Share your view and reasoning.
$BTC
#BTC
On October 14, September CPI will be released.
Bitfinex’s analysis is clear: if monthly core CPI comes in at 0.2% or lower, rate-hike expectations will continue to cool, bond yields will fall, and BTC could break above 84,500 and head toward 86,500. If core CPI is 0.3% or higher, rate-hike expectations could heat up again, and BTC may continue moving sideways between 81,300 and 84,500—or even fall further.
A 0.1-percentage-point difference could determine the direction of the market this week.
First, let’s look at the market consensus. The annual rate for September CPI is forecast at 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August. This increase is mainly driven by oil prices: Brent crude is already above $105, and higher energy prices directly push up the annual CPI figure. But the monthly trend in core CPI (which excludes energy and food) is a cleaner signal. Core CPI rose 0.2% month over month in August; if it holds at 0.2% in September, that would indicate that non-energy inflation is still easing, giving the Fed reason to pause.
One factor that makes me lean toward 0.2%: PCE data—the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—came in at 0.2% last month, below expectations. PCE and CPI are correlated, so if PCE is cooling, core CPI is also unlikely to come in too hot.
One factor that makes me think there’s a risk of 0.3%: housing costs (Shelter) make up nearly a third of CPI, and they’ve been easing more slowly than the market expected. There’s a decent chance this component will remain elevated in September.
Taken together, both 0.2% and 0.3% are realistic scenarios—not a one-way bet.
Another figure worth noting: ETF investors’ average cost basis is about $84,340, roughly $1,500 above the current price. That means ETF buyers are currently sitting on paper losses. If the price rebounds toward $84,340, some of them may close their positions to break even, creating natural resistance. Bitfinex has explicitly identified this price as a “key level for confirming a breakout.”
Warsh’s speech on October 16 is the second signal window to watch after CPI.
Are you betting on CPI coming in at 0.2% or 0.3%? Share your view and reasoning.
$BTC
#BTC
