Trump is once again using word games to steer the narrative, hyping negotiations that haven’t materialized as an “immediate ceasefire.”
The market is trading ahead of events—watch for short-term swings.
On the 11th, Trump posted that an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine had taken effect immediately and that both sides had agreed.
But Zelenskyy said this was news to him; Ukraine had only said, “If Russia stops too, we’ll stop.” Russia has yet to confirm anything.
And even after Trump’s announcement, Russian forces continued attacking Ukrainian power plants, making him look foolish.
Clearly, Trump wants to use this round of talks with Russia to increase diesel supply and temporarily ease sanctions, while pressuring Ukraine to stop striking refineries—turning oil prices into a tool of domestic politics.
Brent $BZ fell back to around 103 after his statement.
This is a short-term, sentiment-driven pullback, not a reversal in fundamentals.
Diesel futures fell even harder, suggesting the market has priced in a potential increase in supply ahead of time.
But we need to understand that what can sustainably bring prices down is a substantive ceasefire and a recovery in supply—not a social media post.
Trust between Russia and Ukraine is low, and history keeps repeating itself; Middle East risks remain unresolved—the Houthis continue attacking Saudi airports and facilities, oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked again over the weekend, and Iran is tightening controls.
If the ceasefire falls through and the Middle East escalates again, prices will rebound quickly.
The outlook for oil remains bullish; any dip is an opportunity.
Go long immediately if Brent falls below 100, with an upside target of 105–110.
$BTC $ETH : You can open a short at the resistance above to capture a short-term pullback.
The market is trading ahead of events—watch for short-term swings.
On the 11th, Trump posted that an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine had taken effect immediately and that both sides had agreed.
But Zelenskyy said this was news to him; Ukraine had only said, “If Russia stops too, we’ll stop.” Russia has yet to confirm anything.
And even after Trump’s announcement, Russian forces continued attacking Ukrainian power plants, making him look foolish.
Clearly, Trump wants to use this round of talks with Russia to increase diesel supply and temporarily ease sanctions, while pressuring Ukraine to stop striking refineries—turning oil prices into a tool of domestic politics.
Brent $BZ fell back to around 103 after his statement.
This is a short-term, sentiment-driven pullback, not a reversal in fundamentals.
Diesel futures fell even harder, suggesting the market has priced in a potential increase in supply ahead of time.
But we need to understand that what can sustainably bring prices down is a substantive ceasefire and a recovery in supply—not a social media post.
Trust between Russia and Ukraine is low, and history keeps repeating itself; Middle East risks remain unresolved—the Houthis continue attacking Saudi airports and facilities, oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked again over the weekend, and Iran is tightening controls.
If the ceasefire falls through and the Middle East escalates again, prices will rebound quickly.
The outlook for oil remains bullish; any dip is an opportunity.
Go long immediately if Brent falls below 100, with an upside target of 105–110.
$BTC $ETH : You can open a short at the resistance above to capture a short-term pullback.