ASML is set to report its third-quarter results on October 14. Could EUV orders deliver another surprise?
$ASML
The key thing to watch in this earnings report isn’t the already expected €11 billion to €12 billion in revenue, but whether major players’ capacity expansions are truly sustainable.
Management previously raised its full-year guidance to €43 billion to €45 billion, showing that the AI and advanced memory arms race is still accelerating.
I don’t think simply hitting the revenue target means much—the market has been spoiled by AI. What will really determine the stock’s direction is the actual value of new orders for EUV and High-NA lithography systems.
If orders beat expectations, it would show that foundries are even more committed to spending big on new fabs than people thought. Conversely, even if the earnings figures look good, any slowdown in order growth could prompt investors to head for the exits without hesitation.
The semiconductor equipment sector has entered a strong cyclical upswing, but divergence will intensify. In the short term, volatility will hinge on the pace of capital spending by the major players; in the long term, keep an eye on how quickly next-generation lithography technology is commercialized.
DYOR
$ASML
The key thing to watch in this earnings report isn’t the already expected €11 billion to €12 billion in revenue, but whether major players’ capacity expansions are truly sustainable.
Management previously raised its full-year guidance to €43 billion to €45 billion, showing that the AI and advanced memory arms race is still accelerating.
I don’t think simply hitting the revenue target means much—the market has been spoiled by AI. What will really determine the stock’s direction is the actual value of new orders for EUV and High-NA lithography systems.
If orders beat expectations, it would show that foundries are even more committed to spending big on new fabs than people thought. Conversely, even if the earnings figures look good, any slowdown in order growth could prompt investors to head for the exits without hesitation.
The semiconductor equipment sector has entered a strong cyclical upswing, but divergence will intensify. In the short term, volatility will hinge on the pace of capital spending by the major players; in the long term, keep an eye on how quickly next-generation lithography technology is commercialized.
DYOR