One sentence about a ceasefire, $CL oil prices fall 1.5% first
Trump announced in a post on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire,” effective immediately. He ended with one more sentence: “Don’t break it.”
The market reacted quickly. Brent crude fell 1.47% to $103.18, while diesel futures dropped 3%. At the same time, BTC returned to around $83,500, up 0.85% over 24 hours; ETH was around $2,543, up 1.75%. The drop in oil prices could ease some inflation and interest-rate pressures, giving risk assets a temporary breather.
But confirmation of the ceasefire was conspicuously lacking: Zelensky said he was still waiting for details from the United States, while Russia had not responded. Ukraine also said that Russian forces continued attacking its energy facilities after Trump’s announcement.
Russia pledged an initial supply of 300,000 tonnes of diesel, or about 2.25 million barrels. The world consumes nearly 29 million barrels of diesel a day—so the initial supply would last the entire world only about 1.9 hours.
Including all subsequent pledges, the total comes to around 4.8 million tonnes, equivalent to about 1.24 days of global demand. Deliveries would be spread out over time and would also depend on the capacity of Russian refineries. The quantity is not as massive as the headlines suggest.
In this latest drop in oil prices, the market is trading on the likelihood of a ceasefire, expectations of restored Russian supply, and the shift in sentiment prompted by political statements. Watch three things next: whether Russia and Ukraine each confirm the ceasefire, whether attacks on energy facilities stop, and whether Wednesday’s U.S. CPI comes in below expectations. A reversal on any one of these could send crude and BTC through today’s moves all over again.
#比特币 #原油 #Trump
Trump announced in a post on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire,” effective immediately. He ended with one more sentence: “Don’t break it.”
The market reacted quickly. Brent crude fell 1.47% to $103.18, while diesel futures dropped 3%. At the same time, BTC returned to around $83,500, up 0.85% over 24 hours; ETH was around $2,543, up 1.75%. The drop in oil prices could ease some inflation and interest-rate pressures, giving risk assets a temporary breather.
But confirmation of the ceasefire was conspicuously lacking: Zelensky said he was still waiting for details from the United States, while Russia had not responded. Ukraine also said that Russian forces continued attacking its energy facilities after Trump’s announcement.
Russia pledged an initial supply of 300,000 tonnes of diesel, or about 2.25 million barrels. The world consumes nearly 29 million barrels of diesel a day—so the initial supply would last the entire world only about 1.9 hours.
Including all subsequent pledges, the total comes to around 4.8 million tonnes, equivalent to about 1.24 days of global demand. Deliveries would be spread out over time and would also depend on the capacity of Russian refineries. The quantity is not as massive as the headlines suggest.
In this latest drop in oil prices, the market is trading on the likelihood of a ceasefire, expectations of restored Russian supply, and the shift in sentiment prompted by political statements. Watch three things next: whether Russia and Ukraine each confirm the ceasefire, whether attacks on energy facilities stop, and whether Wednesday’s U.S. CPI comes in below expectations. A reversal on any one of these could send crude and BTC through today’s moves all over again.
#比特币 #原油 #Trump